USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis February 20, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

US Markets are closed for the Presidents Day Holiday

Feb. 19 21:45     NZD      PPI Input (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

21:45     NZD      PPI Output (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (PPI) Output measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers.

 Feb. 20  00:01     GBP       Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     EUR       German Import Price Index (MoM)

                07:00     CHF        Trade Balance

                 08:15    CHF       Employment Level

                23:50     JPY         Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )

USD/JPY was trading 79.11 up .18. The pair is higher after strong American economic data and positive sentiment in Europe caused a global rally in equities and risk currencies.

At mid day, the currency was trading at 78.82  US cents, down from 78.93 cents on Thursday.

The number of U.S. workers making new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly four years. 

The government reporting initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 last week, the lowest since March 2008.

Other reports had housing starts up 1.5% last month, while wholesale prices climbing 0.1% in January.

Reports just received say that the ECB will exchange their currently existing old Greek bonds for new ones to avoid any legislative action issued by the Greek government to force bondholders to take a settlement.

 Thursday February 16, 2012 Economic Reports forecast vs. actual

 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a  UK  0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20  10:10  Norway  Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20  10:10  Slovakia  Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 & Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21  09:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21  18:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 22  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22  16:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 & BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22  18:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23  18:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24  10:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTP