USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 11, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY  climbed 4 points to trade at 123.22 after lackluster data from Japan this morning and the US dollar continued its rally.  And Japan´s Nikkei rallied two percent — adding to a three-day winning run that has seen it hit a two-month high — as the yen retreated against the dollar.

 The chances of the Federal Reserve hiking US interest rates shot up after Friday´s employment report, fuelling worries of a flight of capital from Asia to the United States as well as higher borrowing costs strangling investment.

Japan’s current account surplus was far weaker than expected in September, as profits from investment abroad dwindled.

The current account — a wide measure of trade including financial flows — produced a surplus of just Y1.468tn ($11.9bn) in September, down 11 per cent from the prior month.

Economists had been expecting the surplus to widen by 30 per cent to Y2.15tn, which would have been the highest since March. Instead, the surplus shrank to its smallest since June.

In recent months surpluses have been driven by “primary income” — receipts and payments on direct investment, portfolio investments and others, which have been bolstered by the weak yen.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 09 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 16:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 11:00 Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 11:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 11 12:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 12 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 11:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 10:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 10:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Nov 19 10:50 France Auctions BTANs

Nov 19 11:50 France Auctions OATi

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov