USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 23, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Nov 20, 2015, 04:51 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY added 5 points to 122.91 slipping from highs in the 123 range even as the US dollar recovered. Of all troubles

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 23, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY added 5 points to 122.91 slipping from highs in the 123 range even as the US dollar recovered. Of all troubles Shinzo Abe thought he’d have with China, another recession wasn’t on the list. Quarrels over history, disputed islands and influence in Asia are suddenly taking a backseat to Tokyo’s vulnerabilities as China drags Japan into its second recession in three years. As China hits a wall, Japan is up against one of its own creation — dating back to 1985.

he core of Abenomics, after all, is a 30% currency devaluation geared toward an industrial system that no longer exists. The weak-yen model that worked so well in the 1980s is flopping because services have long since trumped manufacturing. It also does little for a high-cost, aging and unproductive workforce at time when younger and cheaper competitors are morphing into manufacturing hubs. Instead of boosting wages and investing more in new industries – as Abe had hoped – companies enjoying a weaker yen are cutting back.

Corporate spending, which fell 1% in the third quarter, just had its first back-to-back drops since Japan’s 2011 earthquake and nuclear crisis.

Japan’s central bank yesterday held its fire on expanding its monetary easing program, even as the world’s third-largest economy slipped into its second recession in two years and monthly exports fell.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been trying since late 2012 to revitalize Japan’s economy through his signature “Abenomics” policies, with aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) at its foundation.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event		Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY		BoJ Monthly Report

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 23, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – Labour Thanksgiving Day
EUR	German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)		52.1	52.1
EUR	German Services PMI (Nov)		54.3	54.5
EUR	Manufacturing PMI (Nov)		52.3	52.3
EUR	Markit Composite PMI (Nov)			53.9
EUR	Services PMI (Nov)		54.0	54.1
EUR	Eurogroup Meetings
USD	Manufacturing PMI (Nov)			54.1
USD	Existing Home Sales (Oct)		5.44M	5.55M
USD	Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)			4.7%