The USD/JPY lost a little ground on Wednesday, settling at 111.071, down 0.225 or -0.20% on position-squaring ahead of today’s Federal Reserve interest
The USD/JPY lost a little ground on Wednesday, settling at 111.071, down 0.225 or -0.20% on position-squaring ahead of today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and release of its latest monetary policy statement. The Bank of Japan will issue its monetary policy statement early Thursday.
The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged so the focus for traders will be squarely on the tone of its statement. Traders said Fed policymakers may be wary of sending too strong a message of an imminent policy tightening, particularly after another batch of disappointing data.
Overall, the FOMC is expected to leave its policy options wide open and stress data dependence, there is likely to be little in the way of catalysts for a repricing for a June rate hike. The surprise in the statement could be the use of stronger-than-expected language.
The USD/JPY could weaken further if the Fed is more-dovish than expected. However, it should firm if the statement strongly hints at a possible June rate hike.
After the Fed, it will be the BoJ’s turn to move the markets. Many market players expect the central bank to take some form of easing measures, including an increase in the purchase of stocks and a cut in interest rates.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
USD | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -1.070M | 0.800M | 3.100M |
USD | API Weekly Cushing Crude Oil Stock | 1.900M | -02.35M | |
NZD | Trade Balance (MoM) (Mar) | 117M | 476M | 339M |
NZD | Trade Balance (MoM) (Mar) | -3,380M | -3,560M | -3,320M |
AUD | CPI (QoQ) (Q1) | -0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
AUD | CPI (YoY) (Q1) | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
AUD | Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
EUR | GfK German Consumer Climate (May) | 9.4 | 9.4 | |
GBP | GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
GBP | GDP (YoY) (Q1) | 2.0% | 2.1% | |
USD | Goods Trade Balance (Mar) | -62.50B | -62.50B | |
USD | Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) | 0.5% | 3.5% | |
USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 2.366M | 2.080M | |
USD | FOMC Statement | |||
USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 0.50% | 0.50% | |
NZD | Interest Rate Decision | 2.25% | 2.25% | |
NZD | RBNZ Rate Statement | |||
JPY | BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY) |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Thursday, April 28, 2016
Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
JPY | BoJ Outlook Report (YoY) | |||
JPY | BoJ Press Conference | |||
EUR | German Unemployment Change (Apr) | 4K | 0K | |
USD | GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.7% | 1.4% |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country Auction
Apr 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Apr 27 11:10 Italy Holds CTZ auction
Apr 27 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund
Apr 27 19:00 US 2-year FRN, 5-year note auctions
Apr 28 11:10 Italy Holds 5yr/10yr bond auctions
Apr 28 19:00 US Holds 7-year note auction
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.