USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY continued to climb as the JPY weakened offsetting stimulus in the US by huge sums being injected into the

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

The USD/JPY continued to climb as the JPY weakened offsetting stimulus in the US by huge sums being injected into the market by the BoJ, who is expanding their balance sheet by trillions of yen, trying to help the Japanese economy to recover. With elections scheduled this weekend, and contender Shinzo Abe the likely next Prime Minister markets are a bit worried as Abe’s views of the Bank of Japan, stimulus and economic recovery are not clear or consistent.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 14, 2012	83.53	83.68	83.96	83.32	-0.17%
Dec 13, 2012	83.67	83.22	83.68	83.19	0.54%
Dec 12, 2012	83.22	82.53	83.30	82.50	0.84%
Dec 11, 2012	82.53	82.37	82.58	82.31	0.20%
Dec 10, 2012	82.36	82.57	82.59	82.12	-0.24%

The JPy ended the week at 8352 climbing from Monday’s opening at 82.57 but climbing from the mid 78 price range of last month. The JPY hit record highs on Friday as markets thought it might break the 84.00 range hitting 83.96. The US fiscal cliff negotiations continue to worry traders as markets are sure that a deal will be struck ahead of the deadline but the tax increases are not clear at this time as the year end grows close.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 10-14 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 10	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)	0.1%	3.0%	1.1%
	CNY	Chinese Trade Balance	19.60B	25.70B	32.00B
Dec. 11	AUD	NAB Business Confidence	-9		-1
	USD	Trade Balance	-42.2B	-42.6B	-40.3B
	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	-4.10%		5.20%
	JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.3%	0.2%
Dec. 12	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.9%	-0.5%	0.3%
	USD	10-Year Note Auction	1.652%		1.675%
	USD	Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-172.1B	-150.0B	-120.0B
Dec. 13	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
	USD	PPI (MoM)	-0.8%	-0.5%	-0.2%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%	0.5%	-0.3%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	343K	370K	372K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3198K	3210K	3221K
	USD	PPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.8%	2.3%
	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	-12	-10	-3
Dec. 14	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	50.90		50.50
	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.6%	1.8%	1.8%
	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
	USD	CPI (MoM)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.1%
	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.9%	2.2%
	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	1.9%	2.0%	2.0%
	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.1%	0.3%	-0.7%
	ARS	Argentinian CPI (MoM)	0.9%	0.7%	0.8%

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 94.99 on May 05, 2010

Average: 82.77 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 17	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-1.0	-5.2
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		3.3B
Dec. 18	13:30	USD	Current Account	-103.5B	-117.4B
	21:45	NZD	Current Account	-4.40B	-1.80B
Dec. 19	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.875M	0.868M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.870M	0.894M
	21:45	NZD	GDP (QoQ)	0.4%	0.6%