What I Am Watching Jan 14, 2026

US 10Y Yield

The first thing that I look at many days, although I may or may not mention it, is the 10-year yield in the United States. You can see that the yields have dropped, and remember, bonds are inverse in the sense that the bond market, the higher the price, the lower the yield, and vice versa. But I have the yield in front of you, what it actually pays. You can see that the yield is dropping, and that is potentially a sign of people running to a safe haven.

I would be the first to point out that this is pretty tight consolidation, so I wouldn’t really make too much of this. But it does have a knock-on effect on the US dollar in the currency markets and some other markets as well. At this point, there is also talk about political instability in the United States, which I can assure you is an overreaction.

Macro Indicators and Yield Dynamics

We have seen Europeans and Asians behave with concern when it comes to the US, and then when New York comes online, it is all forgotten about, because I think most Americans are aware of the fact that most of what you see now is political theater on both sides of the aisle. With that being the case, I would not read too much into this from a longer-term perspective, but it does explain what is going on during the session.

We do have 2 announcements during the session: we have PPI and retail sales. I do not know that they will have massive influences on the market unless they miss horribly, but we had CPI miss slightly during the previous session, so I think the market is already set up in the direction it wants to be.

USD/JPY

The first currency pair I am looking at is the US dollar against the Japanese yen, and it does make a certain amount of sense that if the yield is falling in the United States, it works against the carry trade a bit, and we did fall to test the 158 yen level. I think this is an area of support, and I certainly wouldn’t want to short this pair.

The Bank of Japan is still stuck with very low rates, and even if they do try to normalize, it is probably going to be a situation where the debt in Japan breaks something. You can see that up around the 162 yen level was a major swing high. That was right around a major intervention so market participants are watching that. I can assure you that the Bank of Japan does not have a specific line in the sand; it is not like we are going to hit 162 and they start dumping, but the market will treat market memory like that. I like buying dips; I think all the way down to about 156 yen.

NZD/USD

One outlier for the session is the New Zealand dollar. You can see it is struggling a bit against the US dollar after Governor Braman signaled a high probability of another rate cut, pushing this pair well below the 0.58 support level several days ago. Now we are still just hanging out, trying to figure out that rate cut. Is it going to cause a major issue for the Kiwi dollar? I think it does and I remain bearish in this.

You can see that we had bounced, tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and then continued lower. I do think this is one of those places, and the Japanese yen, where the US dollar will fare very well. I do not buy the extraordinarily weak US dollar story at the moment.

Gold (GC11)

It is almost impossible to imagine doing any trading these days without watching the precious metals markets. As things stand right now, gold looks like it is making a fresh new high based on subpoenas being handed to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, but also the overall geopolitical risk. At this point in time anything that should be pro-gold will just push it higher; we are just looking for excuses.

Based on the ascending triangle, the market could very well go to the $4,900 level, and I still see this as a situation where it would be really hard not to see the markets at least try to get to $5,000 sometime in the next few months. Right now, I have $4,400 as your floor. Short-term pullbacks should continue to be buying opportunities and in this particular market I am looking right around the $4,600 level as a short-term floor. Any move towards there and a bounce, I would be very interested in trying to buy into.

Crude Oil (CL11)

The crude oil markets, of course, have been bullish over the last several days with everything that is going on with Venezuela and the Iranians and the possibility that the 25% tariffs on countries doing business with Iran will make some type of difference. They won’t because, quite frankly, Iran and Russia both have had massive tariffs on them for years and sanctions and everything else, and yet people were still willing to buy their oil. Europe gets Russian and Iranian oil sometimes via India, sometimes via China.

I do believe this is nonsense. This rally, of course, could get legs if there is some type of attack in Iran, but really, at this point in time, I think it is probably only a matter of time before we find exhaustion and start selling again because the demand just isn’t there.

I am paying particularly close attention to the 200-day EMA and the $62 level, so signs of exhaustion will be sold into. If we break above the 200-day EMA, then maybe we go to $65 because there are external factors that could pop up to make things different, but right now, there is still a glut of oil. Most of this is drama in the markets and not based on any particular type of reality.