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When Fiction Reveals the Flaws in Well-Thought-Out Plans

By:
Gary S.Wagner
Published: Jul 1, 2023, 07:09 GMT+00:00

In both comedy films and real life, we often encounter situations where meticulously crafted plans fall flat on their faces.

When Fiction Reveals the Flaws in Well-Thought-Out Plans

In this article:

This article takes a humorous perspective on the notion that sometimes fiction can be more viable than a supposedly well-thought-out plan. While the focus of this article is the recent decline in gold, it also draws parallels to a comedic dialogue from Men in Black and a plan devised by Chairman Powell to reduce inflation. The common thread is the inherent flaw in assuming success without understanding the full truth behind the processes involved.

Gold has experienced a downward trend over the past two months, culminating in a deep price correction. Currently, gold futures are trading at a low of $1912.30, falling below a critical price support level. The failure to close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement suggests a higher probability of gold futures drifting towards $1900 next week, with little support until $1870. This situation highlights the fallibility of well-intentioned plans that overlook critical factors.

A Lesson from The Men in Black

The comedic dialogue in Men in Black’s third installment provides an excellent example of the absurd assumptions that can lead to plan failures. When the alpha villain Boris the Animal time travels to Earth seeking revenge, he asks the younger Boris about their plan. The confident response is to prevent the deployment of the ArcNet and eliminate anyone who tries. However, the older Boris humorously points out that despite the seemingly foolproof plan, it ultimately fails. This parallel serve to illustrate the moral of the story—the preposterous assumption that underpinned the plan’s flawed nature.

Boris the older animal asks: What’s your plan?

The younger Boris responds with absolute certainty saying in a loud and threatening alpha voice… “Prevent the ArcNet from being deployed. Kill anyone who tries!”

It is this response that is overwhelmingly humorous when Boris the Animal says:

The older Boris responds sarcastically saying good plan – didn’t work.

Chairman Powell’s Plan and Inflation

MarketWatch published an article discussing Chairman Powell’s plan to reduce inflation, which, like the fictional dialogue, is riddled with flawed assumptions. While sounding plausible on the surface, the plan lacks the necessary ingredients for success. The article highlights the steps Chairman Powell believes are necessary to address inflationary pressures but reveals that the plan is not yielding the desired outcomes. The flaws in these scenarios arise from incorrect identification of the processes needed to tackle the problems at hand.

The Complex Failure of Well-Thought-Out Plans: Both the fictional dialogue in Men in Black and Chairman Powell’s plan exemplify the failure of well-thought-out plans. Despite the initial plausibility, these plans are deeply flawed, leading to improbable outcomes. The article emphasizes the theme of flawed assumptions, which can doom even the most meticulously crafted strategies to failure. While humor in fiction can entertain, it is disconcerting when real-life failures result from incorrect assessments of the problems at hand.

The Federal Reserve’s Attempted Solutions

Persistent inflation has prompted global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to employ interest rate hikes as a means to combat inflationary pressures. However, these rate hikes have failed to achieve their intended effect of lowering core inflation, which remains persistent at levels above 4%. Each rate hike has shown no direct correlation with a reduction in inflation within sectors. The explanation for this planning failure is succinct: “Good plan; didn’t work.”

In both fictional and real-life scenarios, plans can fall victim to flawed assumptions and incomplete understandings of the underlying processes. The recent decline in gold value serves as a backdrop to highlight the fallibility of well-thought-out plans. By examining the comedic dialogue in Men in Black and Chairman Powell’s plan to reduce inflation, we uncover the importance of comprehending the full truth behind a problem before formulating solutions. The failures depicted remind us that the best plans do not always guarantee success when they lack a solid foundation of accurate information and analysis

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Wishing you as always good trading,

Gary S. Wagner

About the Author

Gary S.Wagnercontributor

Gary S. Wagner has been a technical market analyst for 35 years. A frequent contributor to STOCKS & COMMODITIES Magazine, he has also written for Futures Magazine as well as Barron’s. He is the executive producer of "The Gold Forecast," a daily video newsletter. He writes a daily column “Hawaii 6.0” for Kitco News

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