XRP Bulls Face Sub-$0.38 on SEC v Ripple Silence and Fed Fear

Key Insights:

• On Monday, XRP slid by 4.80% to end the day at sub-$0.40 for the first time in eleven sessions.
• Sentiment toward the SEC v Ripple case played second fiddle to Fed Fear and a bearish NASDAQ Index.
• The technical indicators turned bearish, with XRP sitting below the 100-day EMA, signaling a return to $0.37.

On Monday, XRP slid by 4.80%. Reversing a 1.35% gain from Sunday, XRP ended the day at $0.39363. XRP wrapped up the day at sub-$0.40 levels for the first time in eleven sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.42194. XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4182 before sliding to a late low of $0.3861. XRP fell through the Major Support Levels before a move through the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $0.3919 to end the day at $0.39363.

Fed Fear Muted Optimism Toward the Outcome of the SEC v Ripple Case

It was a quiet Monday session, with no updates from the SEC v Ripple case to provide direction. The lack of updates left XRP in the hands of the broader crypto market and the NASDAQ Index.

Hopes of a Fed pivot vanished on Monday, with investor fear of a hawkish Fed Chair Powell press conference sending the NASDAQ Index and the crypto market into negative territory. While US inflation has softened, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. With the US unemployment rate at just 3.5% versus a target of 5%, Powell has plenty of room to push higher for longer.

For XRP, the wait-and-see mode could also test investor resilience. While Court rulings could come at any time, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse expects a conclusion within the first half of the year that would leave investors in limbo over the nearer term.

Today, investors should monitor updates from the SEC v Ripple case. However, a lack of updates would leave the broader crypto market to provide direction. FTX and Genesis updates and regulatory chatter will draw interest. US economic indicators and the NASDAQ Index will influence the afternoon session.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.82% to $0.39041. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.39385 before falling to a low of $0.38812.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.4006 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4150 and the Monday high of $0.42194. A return to $0.4050 would signal a bullish session. However, the broader crypto market and SEC v Ripple chatter would need to support a breakout.

In the case of an SEC v Ripple-fueled extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4364. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4722.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3792 in play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.37 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3647. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3289.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.39921. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The signals were bearish.

A move through the 100-day EMA ($0.39921) would support a breakout from the 50-day EMA ($0.40614) to target R1 ($0.4150). However, a fall through the 200-day EMA ($0.38807) would give the bears a run at S1 ($0.3792) and sub-$0.3750. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.