XRP Bulls in Need of an SEC v Ripple Ruling to Avoid Sub-$0.40

Key Insights:

• On Monday, XRP slid by 4.45% to end the session at $0.42924.
• SEC v Ripple-related news, Binance, and the Bittrex.US Chapter 11 filing left XRP at sub-$0.43.
• The technical indicators are bearish, signaling a return to $0.40.

On Monday, XRP slid by 4.45%. Following a 2.15% decline on Sunday, XRP ended the day at $0.42924. Significantly, XRP ended the session at sub-$0.43 for the first time since March 24.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to a first-hour high of $0.45148. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4577, XRP tumbled to a late afternoon low of $0.41001. XRP fell through the Major Support Levels before a move through S3 ($0.4246) to end the day at $0.42924.

Binance, Bittrex.US, and Ripple v SEC Angst Weighed

It was a quiet start to the week, with no SEC v Ripple case updates to impact the Monday session. Investors remained cautious, with the XRP Community expecting a Court ruling that could redraw the US crypto regulatory landscape.

While there were no SEC v Ripple case updates to consider, Brad Garlinghouse stunned the market, saying the SEC lawsuit will ultimately cost Ripple $200 million. The Ripple CEO was speaking at the Dubai Fintech Summit.

Brad Garlinghouse also gave a grim view of the US crypto landscape and regulatory environment while complimenting Dubai, saying,

“As I just shared on stage at the Dubai Fintech Summit, Ripple is expanding in Dubai. With 20% of our customers based in MENA and clear regulatory regimes being developed, it’s no surprise that Dubai is emerging as a key global financial hub for crypto innovation to thrive.”

However, away from the Fintech Summit, Binance-related news from the weekend weighed. Significantly, rising transaction fees raised question marks over the viability of BTC, ETH, and altcoins as an alternative to fiat currencies.

The Bittrex.US Chapter 11 filing also weighed on buyer appetite.

It was a quiet afternoon on the US economic calendar, with no US economic indicators to distract investors ahead of the US CPI Report mid-week.

The Day Ahead

Court rulings from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case remain the focal point, with investors expecting Court activity.

However, a lack of SEC v Ripple case updates will likely continue to test buyer appetite. Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news and the SEC will continue to draw interest. With transaction fees in the spotlight, high transaction fees will remain a broader crypto market headwind.

This afternoon, there are no US economic indicators to influence. The lack of stats will leave Fed chatter to provide direction.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 1.15% to $0.42429. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.42890 before falling to a low of $0.42429.

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

XRP needs to move through the $0.4302 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4505 and the Monday high of $0.45148. A return to $0.4450 would signal a bullish session. However, SEC v Ripple chatter and the crypto news wires must support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4717. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5132.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4090 in play. However, barring another crypto event-fueled sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.40 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3888. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3473.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.45477. The 50-day EMA pulled back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.4505) and the 50-day EMA ($0.45477) would give the bulls a run at the 100-day ($0.46368) and 200-day ($0.46886) EMAs and R2 ($0.4717). However, failure to move through R1 ($0.4505) and the 50-day EMA ($0.45477) would leave S1 ($0.4090) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.