XRP fell by 0.51% on Thursday, ending the session at $0.6064.
Increased regulatory and lawmaker scrutiny continues to counter hopes of a favorable settlement in the SEC v Ripple case.
Uncertainty about SEC plans to appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling remains another headwind.
The Thursday Overview
On Thursday, XRP fell by 0.51%. Following a 0.25% loss on Wednesday, XRP ended the session at $0.6064.
SEC v Ripple: Settlement Could Expedite an Appeal
There were no SEC v Ripple case-related updates for investors to consider on Thursday. SEC and Ripple have remained silent on progress in the remedies-related discovery process. The parties must complete remedies-related discovery by February 12, 2024.
According to the November court order, the SEC must file its remedies-related brief by March 13, 2024, and Ripple on or before April 12, 2024. Considering the schedule, the SEC and Ripple have sufficient time to settle. However, the SEC may be seeking a far greater disgorgement than Ripple has in mind.
XRP sales to institutional investors totaled $770 million. However, Ripple will cite Morrison v NAB to deduct XRP sales to non-US institutional investors from the $770 million. The sum could be significantly lower than Ripple’s $150 million legal bill. In the Morrison v NAB case, the Supreme Court ruled the SEC only has jurisdiction over US-based sales.
A low settlement could reinforce expectations of an SEC appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling. For the SEC, a settlement is a much-needed win. However, the Programmatic Sales ruling was a significant loss for the SEC and one it would likely want to remedy.
A favorable settlement would be a positive outcome for Ripple and XRP. An appeal of the Programmatic Sales ruling would be price-negative for XRP and the broader market.
Ripple Reacts to Wall Street Journal Attack on the SEC
On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal made headlines again. Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty shared an excerpt from a WSJ article, saying,
“Today’s Wall Street Journal: “The Supreme Court has repeatedly ruled against the SEC in recent years.” The SEC is anything but infallible; it is bloated, broken, and beleaguered. Don’t be intimidated when they come knocking.”
The screenshot of an WSJ article highlighted the SEC’s losses in the Supreme Court, adding,
“In April, the justices said people and their businesses subjected to SEC administrative proceedings can seek to enjoin, or block, those proceedings by suing in a federal district court and raising constitutional arguments there.”
The latest snipe at the SEC coincided with an SEC closed-door meeting, with the SEC v Ripple case a likely topic of discussion.
XRP Price Action
XRPUSD 011223 Weekly Chart
XRP held above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.
An XRP move to the $0.62 handle would give the bulls a run at the $0.6354 resistance level and the $0.65 handle.
SEC v Ripple case-related news and SEC activity remain focal points.
However, a break below the trend line and 50-day EMA would support a drop to the $0.5835 support level.
The 14-day RSI reading of 47.42 suggests an XRP break below the 50-day EMA before entering oversold territory.
XRPUSD 011223 Daily Chart
On the 4-hourly, XRP sat below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.
An XRP move through the EMAs would bring the $0.6354 resistance level and the $0.65 handle into play.
However, an XRP break below the trend line would support a fall to the $0.5835 support level.
The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 44.61, suggests an XRP drop below the $0.60 handle before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.