XRP-Spot ETF Countdown: Launch Imminent?
XRP traders braced for the imminent launch of seven XRP-spot ETFs as the SEC issued sweeping requests to all crypto-spot ETF issuers.
SEC Orders Withdrawal of 19b-4 Filings
The SEC has reportedly requested all issuers of ADA, DOGE, LTC, SOL, and XRP ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 filings.
Crypto America host and journalist Eleanor Terrett shared the news, stating:
“The SEC has asked issuers of LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 filings following the approval of the generic listing standards, which replace the need for those filings. Am told withdrawals could start happening as soon as this week.”
Generic Listing Standards Change the Game
The SEC approved the Generic Listing Standards (GLS) for Commodity-Based trust shares on September 17. The approval removed the need for exchanges to file a 19b-4 to begin the SEC’s review process.
Final Deadlines and Market Impact
Notably, the SEC’s request for the withdrawal of the 19b-4s came ahead of looming crypto-spot ETF final decision deadlines. Canary Capital’s Litecoin ETF is the first crypto-spot ETF in line for the SEC to approve, with a final decision deadline of October 2.
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See all Bitcoin forecastsThe withdrawal of the 19b-4s could mean that the agency may allow all the crypto-spot ETFs to launch in one batch, removing the first-to-market advantage in the altcoin-spot ETF race.
On Monday, September 29, I speculated about a potential greenlight for all crypto-spot ETFs, given the SEC’s previous steps to prevent early mover advantage.
XRP-Spot ETF Launch Timeline
The latest developments mean that all seven XRP-spot ETFs could potentially launch by Friday, October 3. Currently, the final decision deadlines for the XRP-spot ETFs are:
- Grayscale: October 18.
- 21Shares: October 19.
- Bitwise: October 20.
- Canary Capital: October 24.
- CoinShares: October 25.
- WisdomTree: October 25.
- Franklin Templeton: November 14.
With GLS in effect, these deadlines no longer constrain launches, allowing for a simultaneous October debut.
Analyst and Market Reactions
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas reacted to the reports, stating:
“This was something we thought could happen. It makes sense as you don’t need 19b-4s in the post-GLS world. Just not sure how the launch schedule will work yet. More will be revealed soon.”
Balchunas added:
“Honestly, the odds are really 100% now. Generic listing standards make the 19b-4s and their ‘clock’ meaningless. That just leaves the S-1s waiting for formal green light from Corp finance.”
The potential launch of all 21 crypto-spot ETFs, across multiple cryptos, on the same day sets the stage for a chaotic fourth quarter. Crypto-spot ETF flow trends could break the broader inter-market correlation and see differentiation by investor bias, potentially based on real-world utility.
NovaDius Wealth Management President Nate Geraci warned about a pivotal moment for the crypto market, stating:
“Enormous next few weeks for spot crypto ETFs. SEC final deadlines approaching on numerous filings.”
BlackRock’s Role
Yet, BlackRock (BLK) has remained silent on its XRP-spot ETF plans. However, the GLS means that the ETF issuer could list and trade at any time. BlackRock could potentially launch an iShares XRP Trust the same day that the seven XRP-spot ETFs launch. While it is plausible for BlackRock to launch at a later date, the issuer may want to avoid giving other ETF issuers a first-mover advantage.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) have reported net inflows of $60.82 billion and $13.16 billion, dominating the BTC–spot and ETH-spot ETF markets. The substantial inflows underscore the potential impact of an iShares XRP Trust on XRP’s price outlook.
Traders should monitor BlackRock’s crypto-spot ETF activity closely. An iShares XRP Trust listing would be a likely price catalyst.
Price Action & Technical Analysis: Breakout or Breakdown?
XRP climbed 0.47% on Monday, September 29, following the previous day’s 2.17% rally, closing at $2.882.
The token trailed the broader market (1.48%), but moved nearer to the psychological $3 level. Traders are watching the following technical levels:
- Support: $2.7 and $2.5.
- Resistance: $3, $3.2, and the all-time high at $3.66.
In the near term, several key scenarios could influence price trends:
- XRP ETF demand.
- Spot ETF developments: Approval or delays of crypto-spot ETFs and BlackRock’s position for listing and trading XRP-spot ETFs.
- Blue-chip companies’ appetite for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related developments may also influence sentiment.
Catalysts & Scenarios
The balance of ETF flows, regulatory news, and demand from blue-chip companies could determine whether XRP tests support levels or breaks above resistance.
Bearish Scenario
- GDLC, BITW, and XRPR ETFs report outflows, and BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
- SEC declines XRP-spot ETF applications.
- Setbacks or resistance to crypto-friendly regulations, including the Market Structure Bill.
- Blue-chip companies dismiss plans to acquire XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
- SWIFT retains market share in global remittances, limiting Ripple’s market access.
These bearish scenarios could push XRP toward $2.7. A break below $2.7 would expose the $2.5 support level.
Bullish Scenario
- BITW, GDLC, and XRPR report strong inflows.
- BlackRock lists and trades an iShares XRP Trust, and ETF issuers launch XRP-spot ETFs.
- Blue-chip companies build XRP holdings for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms adopt Ripple technology.
- Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Market Structure Bill passes the Senate.
- SWIFT loses market share of global remittances to Ripple.
These scenarios could send XRP toward $3. A break above $3 could pave the way to $3.2 and bring the record high of $3.66 into sight.
Conclusion: Spotlight on XRP-Spot ETFs
Will XRP-spot ETFs launch this week, and how will XRP stack up against ADA, DOGE, LTC, and SOL?
An early launch and XRP-spot ETF flow trends may affect the token’s price trajectory through the fourth quarter. However, legislative developments, including the Market Structure Bill, also require consideration. Regulatory clarity for the digital asset space could fuel Main Street demand.
Analysts will closely monitor how regulatory and economic risks influence XRP’s price outlook in the coming weeks.
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