XRP Price Prediction: XRP Could Drop Below $1 as Distribution Phase Kicks In

XRP (XRP) has gone down by 5% in the past 7 days after rejecting a move above a key trend line resistance that could set the stage for a stronger drop.

This altcoin has shed 40% of its value in 2026, as macroeconomic conditions continue to be unfavorable for crypto assets.

Persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the looming threat of higher inflation in the United States have depressed the price of risky assets, as investors tend to favor low-risk instruments during periods of rising interest rates.

Meanwhile, both on-chain data and net inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seem to indicate that XRP could be entering another distribution phase, as investors’ interest in the token has waned in the past couple of months.

On-Chain Signals Flag a Potentially Strong Drop Ahead for XRP

According to data compiled by SoSoValue, investors have poured only $13 million into these ETFs in July, meaning a 78% drop compared to last month’s inflows.

Meanwhile, this is the second consecutive month that ETF inflows have experienced negative growth, indicating that market participants are less and less interested in getting exposure to this altcoin.

We have also been tracking exchange inflows, which is a metric that indicates how whales could be positioning. We reported in previous XRP price prediction articles that this metric rose to its highest level since July 2025 earlier this month.

Just a few weeks after net inflows spiked to these levels, the current bear market started. Hence, this is a warning sign that whales could be preparing to dump XRP once again.

At a point when volumes are very thin, this could cause a significant drop in the price in the near term, which increases the likelihood of a break below $1 for XRP.

This is both a psychological and technical supports that, if broken, could set off a strong long squeeze that ends up pushing XRP to $0.80 in the mid-term.

XRP Rejects Move Above Key Trend Line Resistance

Earlier this month we identified a bullish pattern that could have resulted in a strong recovery to $1.32 for XRP if the trend line resistance shown in the chart was broken.

However, the price action quickly rejected a move above this line and the price dropped strongly right after hitting that mark.

We now see high odds that XRP will retest the $1 level in the near term. Meanwhile, negative momentum is accelerating as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 44. If this indicator drops below 40, that would confirm a sell signal.

On the other hand, if the $1 level holds, that could be an early indication of a double bottom pattern. In that case, the price would have to climb above above $1.15 to confirm the pattern’s bullish bias.

That said, the odds of a bullish move right now are low given that market conditions remain unfavorable for cryptos. In addition, exchange inflows indicate that XRP could be entering a distribution phase, which increases the odds of a continuation of the downtrend that started in early June.