XRP Return to $0.50 Looking Precarious as SEC v Ripple Progress Slows

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, XRP fell by 1.56% to end the day at $0.46207.
• Despite hopes of a favorable outcome to the SEC v Ripple case, slow progress and broader crypto market sentiment weighed.
• The technical indicators are bearish, with XRP sitting below the 50-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$0.45.

On Thursday, XRP fell by 1.56%. Partially reversing a 1.75% gain from Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.46207. Notably, fell rose for the second time in seven sessions.

A bullish start to the day saw XRP strike an early high of $0.48214. XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4746 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4799. However, a bearish afternoon dragged XRP to a late low of $0.45852. XRP fell through the First Major Resistance Level (S1) at $0.4606 before a partial recovery to $0.46207.

A lack of SEC v Ripple case updates left XRP in the hands of the broader crypto market. Bearish sentiment stemming from US economic indicators and corporate earnings sent XRP and the crypto market into the red.

SEC v Ripple Case Updates Grind to a Halt

There were no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to provide XRP price direction. The lack of news continued to leave XRP short of $0.50 visited on October 14.

With the next Court date being November 15, it could be a tough few weeks for XRP holders. Amicus brief filings in favor of the defendants will likely draw further interest. However, investors will need to be mindful of the pending Court decision on the latest SEC attempt to restrict disclosure of the Hinman speech-related documents.

This month, the SEC changed tact on shielding the Hinman docs under the attorney-client privilege. After failing to convince the Courts, the SEC now targets specific docs with requests for redactions.

William Hinman remains a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case despite the SEC’s best efforts. In a famous 2018 speech, Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

Lawmaker sentiment toward the SEC case against Ripple remains mixed ahead of the mid-term elections.

On Thursday, CryptoLaw shared a comment from Kerri Toloczko (@KerriHT), a public policy/coalition expert, who said,

“I am not a cryptocurrency expert or investor. So, why am I concerned about the SEC suing cryptocurrency companies? Principle, economic growth, and fairness.”

CryptoLaw noted that KerriHT is someone from outside of the crypto community.

Overnight, Ripple Defense Lawyer Stuart Alderoty also took to Twitter, saying,

“The SEC’s Office of Inspector General’s (OIG) report is worth a read. Besides the embarrassingly bad performance review, the OIG concludes there is uncertainty whether the SEC has jurisdiction over crypto. This is the SEC’s own cop on the beat talking.”

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 0.25% to $0.46322. A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.45994 before rising to a high of $0.46688.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.4676 pivot to take a run at the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4766 and the Thursday high of $0.48214. Updates from the SEC v Ripple case and broader crypto market sentiment will continue to provide direction ahead of US economic indicators later in the day.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4912 and $0.50. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5148.

Failure to move through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4530 into play. However, barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.45 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4440. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4203.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.45872. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day narrowing to the 50-day EMA. The signals were bearish.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($0.46396) and the 100-day EMA ($0.46679) would give the bulls a run at R1 ($0.4766). However, a fall through the 200-day EMA ($0.45872) would bring S1 ($0.4530) into view.