XRP vs Bitcoin: 40% Recovery Sets Stage For Q3 Push

XRP (XRP) is showing signs of breaking out versus its top-ranking rival, Bitcoin (BTC), in the third quarter of 2025, a rally that may grow the widely-tracked pair, XRP/BTC, up by more than 40%.

Bull Flag Breakout Could Send XRP/BTC to May 2021 Highs

XRP has rebounded by over 40% versus Bitcoin three weeks after forming a local bottom at 1,928 satoshis on July 22. As of Monday, the pair’s intraday high was around 2,737 satoshis. Note that one satoshi equals 0.00000001 BTC.

In doing so, XRP/BTC has formed key components of what appears to be a bull flag pattern. That includes a flagpole, followed by consolidation inside a parallel, descending channel. Patterns such as these typically lead to breakouts, primarily if the price breaks above the upper boundary.

If XRP holds above its current support near the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA; purple wave), it could soon retest the flag’s upper trendline for a potential breakout.

A successful breakout may open the door for a rally of more than 40% toward 3,848 satoshis in Q3, a level last seen in May 2021.

What Would Change This View?

A break below the 20-day EMA at 2,660 satoshis risks delaying the breakout setup, putting XRP/BTC on the path toward the flag’s lower trendline instead. That line aligns with the 200-day EMA (the blue wave) and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement line at 2,315 satoshis.

Meanwhile, a decisive break below the flag’s lower trendline may invalidate the bull flag setup altogether. XRP risks falling toward the 0.0 Fib line near 1,967 satoshis, down by over 25% from current levels.

Why is XRP Outperforming Bitcoin?

One of the biggest catalysts for XRP’s recent outperformance was the conclusion of the long-running SEC lawsuit against Ripple Labs.

Both parties dropped their appeals, effectively ending years of legal uncertainty. This resolution removed a major regulatory overhang, paving the way for increased institutional participation and boosting investor confidence.

Adding to the momentum are growing expectations of exchange-traded fund (ETF) products tied to XRP. While major investment firms and Japan’s SBI Holdings have been rumored to be exploring spot XRP ETFs, no official filings have been confirmed.

Even so, speculation around such products has fed both retail and institutional demand, especially when combined with the fresh legal win.

XRP has also benefited from broader political and regulatory tailwinds. The crypto-friendly stance of the Donald Trump administration, coupled with direct engagement between Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and President Trump, has bolstered sentiment.

Regulatory clarity in the US and other jurisdictions has further reinforced adoption prospects, helping XRP gain an edge over Bitcoin in recent weeks.