XRP Whale Takeover Fuels Price Rally: 90% in Exchange Outflows Now Controlled by Big Money

XRP’s (XRP) richest traders are withdrawing their holdings from exchanges at a multi-year record pace, aligning with the token’s recent rise.

XRP Whale Dominance Hits 2024 Highs

CryptoQuant data show that large holders now dominate XRP outflows across centralized exchanges, creating one of the strongest whale-led readings since 2024.

For instance, on Binance, XRP Whale Outflow Dominance has climbed to 91.4%, while Retail Outflow Dominance has dropped to 8.4%.

The same pattern appears across the broader market. Across all centralized exchanges, XRP Whale Dominance has reached 90.5%, its highest level since 2024.

Retail Dominance, on the other hand, has fallen to 9.3%, marking its lowest level since 2024.

The current structure contrasts sharply with July 2025, when retail dominance surged near one of its strongest readings as XRP traded near its cycle peak around $3.50.

That retail-heavy setup preceded a decline of more than 61%, showing how fragile XRP became when smaller participants dominated flows near the top.

Today’s market shows the opposite pattern. Instead of retail activity rising near a price peak, whales now drive most XRP outflows.

These exchange outflows can occur for several reasons, including custody shifts, internal transfers, or repositioning.

But, when combined with XRP’s 27% rebound from February lows, the data suggests that these whales intend to hold XRP tokens in their cold wallets instead of selling them for other assets via crypto exchanges.

This serves as a classic bullish case: less XRP supply on exchanges, if met with higher demand, can raise the price.

XRP Wallet Data Supports Whale Demand Thesis

Wallet data by Glassnode reinforces the whale-led structure.

Addresses holding 10,000–100,000 XRP have steadily increased their supply share over the past year, reaching fresh highs in 2026. This cohort typically represents mid-to-large holders actively positioning during accumulation phases.

At the same time, 1,000–10,000 XRP wallets, often considered advanced retail or smaller whales, also show a consistent uptrend in holdings. Their balances accelerated notably into 2025–2026, even as price volatility increased.

This dual accumulation across tiers suggests coordinated demand rather than isolated large transfers.

“Mid-tier whales (10M–100M XRP) added over 420M XRP in ~11 days,” on-chain analyst Sebastian Klak noted, adding:

“That’s roughly $570M flowing in. Even larger players are stepping in: Wallets holding 1B+ XRP increased positions by 720M XRP. This isn’t panic. This is preparation.”

XRP Technical Setup Shows Indecision, Favors 25% Drop Next

XRP is rebounding alongside the broader crypto market, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), as risk sentiment improves during periods of easing US–Iran tensions and strong tech earnings.

However, the rally remains fragile amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices. Technical setups look skewed toward bears, as well.

For instance, XRP is forming a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart, where price moves between lower highs and higher lows. This pattern shows indecision, but it usually breaks in the direction of the prior trend, which is currently down.

XRP trades near $1.40 and struggles below key moving averages, showing weak momentum. A break below the triangle support near $1.30 could confirm a bearish move.

If that happens, the pattern’s measured target points to around $1.05, or roughly 25% lower. The level aligns with the apex of XRP’s multi-year falling wedge channel, thus doubling down on the potential decline ahead.

Notably, XRP’s $1.05 triangle breakdown target sits near the realized price of addresses holding 1,000–10,000 tokens. That makes the area a key cost-basis zone.

A drop into this range could trigger two outcomes: buyers defend their breakeven level, or weaker holders capitulate if the price breaks below it. In either case, the $1.00–$1.05 zone now acts as a major test for XRP’s downside thesis.

To avoid the bearish setup, XRP must break above the triangle resistance and reclaim levels above $1.60–$1.70. From an on-chain perspective, it must hold above the aggregated cost basis at around $1.40.

How High Can XRP Price Go?

XRP’s whale-led outflows may help limit the bearish triangle breakdown risk in the near term.

The token is rebounding from the lower trendline of its long-term falling wedge, a setup where price makes lower highs and lower lows before a possible reversal.

Its next upside test sits near the wedge’s upper trendline around $1.52, also close to the 0.618 Fibonacci level.

A weekly close above that area could weaken the bearish case and open the door for a larger recovery. The wedge’s measured upside target sits near $3.50, XRP’s 2025 peak zone.

Conversely, a drop below the wedge’s lower trendline—again—raises XRP’s odds of hitting $1.