Crude Oil (CL) Forecast, Page 1

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at $63.48.

U.S. energy firms last week reduced the number of oil rigs operating for the first time in three weeks as production growth forecasts from shale, the country’s largest oil fields, continue to shrink.

Crude oil markets continue to go back and forth as this week was no different than the previous week. The resistance just above is causing some issues for the WTI market, while the Brent market seems to be spinning its wheels and waiting for its cousin to come along.

Crude oil markets were of course closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday, but at this point it’s obvious that we are killing time, perhaps trying to break above major resistance.

Traders are facing two major issues at this time: Further pressure on Iran and whether OPEC and its allies, including Russia will continue the deal to reduce production.

The loonie bulls rose slightly amid rising crude prices. The USD/CAD stood well above the significant 200-days SMA developing a bullish outlook.

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Crude oil markets continue to do very little as we are approaching a major resistance barrier. There are a lot of moving pieces right now, so quite frankly we continue to struggle to show clarity.

If buyers take control then look for a test of a pair of uptrending Gann angles at $64.15 and $64.17. Overtaking $64.17 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with $64.72 the next major target.

This time, the CAD Retails numbers are expected to report positive data to the prior negative numbers. Loonie continued to remain subdued within the range of 1.3282/1.3402 levels since April 1.

The markets could experience choppy, two-sided trading today due to thin, pre-holiday volume, and renewed concerns over future demand due to the weak Euro Zone PMI data. Earlier in the week some of those concerns were offset by stronger-than-expected economic data from China.

Energy demand declined year over year

Crude oil markets continue to press resistance overhead, but at this point it seems as if we aren’t quite ready to make a significant move. With that being the case, it’s very likely that we will continue to chop around with an upward bias.

Based on the early price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending Gann angle at $64.15.

June WTI crude oil will remain bullish as long as prices can hold above a key technical level at $63.48. June Brent crude oil is attempting to breakout over $71.77. If successful then this will also put the futures contract in a position to accelerate to the upside.

The USD/CAD may find a way to recover previous losses post-release of the bearish-expected Canadian CPI Core data. The Major 200-day SMA stood above the pair inviting more loonie bears.

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Based on the current price at $63.85, the direction of the June WTI crude oil market into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at $63.93.

All things being equal, I believe that this market will probably go looking towards the $75 level. Above there we could really start to take off to the upside.

Traders appear to be reluctant to chase prices higher at current levels, given the new concerns over future demand and the possibility of higher production from Russia. It looks as if prices are being pressured by a combination of little buying and more profit-taking and position-squaring.