Biden Leads. Pennsylvania May Ultimately Decide America’s Political Fate

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As things stand, Joe Biden sits with 238 Electoral College votes to lead Trump by just 25 votes.

Once more, the pollsters couldn’t have got it more wrong, with the polls forecasting a haul of just 125 votes for Trump.

Pollsters had Biden with 207 solid votes ahead of Election Day, with Trump having just 83.

For the incumbent, winning both Florida and Texas, which had been toss-up states, has certainly been key.

So, while the writing appears to be on the wall and Trump look set for a 2^nd term, Biden could still win, mathematically at least…

A number of swing states are counting absentee ballots as we speak and it could be days before a clear winner is announced.

States that will be keeping Capitol Hill and the global financial markets on tenterhooks include:

Georgia (16 Electoral College votes): 50.5 to 48.3 in Trump’s favor (94% of votes in)

Michigan (16 Electoral College votes): 51.4 vs 47.0 in Trump’s favor (83% of votes in)

Nevada (6 Electoral College votes): 47.9 vs 50.0 in Biden’s favor (67% of votes in)

North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes): 50.1 vs 48.7 in Trump’s favor (94% of votes in)

Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College votes): 55.7 vs 43.1 in Trump’s favor (64% of votes in)

Wisconsin (10 Electoral College votes): 49.1 vs 49.4 in Biden’s favor (95% of votes in)

Looking at the Numbers

For Joe Biden, taking Arizona was a must, having failed to win either Florida or Texas.

Winning Arizona leaves Biden short by 32 Electoral College votes.

Georgia looks to have gone Trump’s way, as has North Carolina.

That leaves the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. With 46 Electoral College votes up for grabs, all three would take Biden across the line but only just. Michigan, however, looks to be a lost battle for Biden.

Since the early hours of this morning, it looked as though Pennsylvania would be the decider. As things stand, Pennsylvania could well be the decider. This is assuming that Biden wins both Nevada and Wisconsin.

For Biden, in the event of a victory, it would postal ballots that would have done the job. This would undoubtedly rile Trump and lead to recounts and lengthy court battles.

Going into the election, it was clear that Trump would contest any narrow loss and the chatter has already begun.

The incumbent has already talked of fraud in spite of a mass of absentee ballots yet to be counted.

The Global Equity Markets

It’s been a particularly choppy day across the futures, with the Dow having been down by as much as 400 points and up by more than 300 points.

The volatility is likely to continue as the markets get a sense of who will actually win the keys to the Oval Office.

At the time of writing, the Dow Futures was down by just 56 points.

Across the European markets, the DAX30 and CAC40 have seen minor gains early in the session.

At the time of writing, the DAX30 was up by 0.17% and the CAC40 by 0.44%. The general consensus had been that a Trump victory would be negative for the European majors.

As things stand, it may be the lingering hope of a Biden victory that is providing support. It could, alternatively, be Trump’s unwillingness to shut down the U.S in the interest of economic prosperity that is supporting the majors.

Whatever happens in the coming days, the pollsters got things wrong once more. Some attribute this to “Trump shame”, where those participating in polls are too embarrassed to admit support for Trump.

Overnight

So, overnight the markets will be looking for Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan, and Georgia to be called.

That leaves Nevada and Pennsylvania, both with less than 70% of votes counted and accounting for a total of 26 Electoral College votes.

If the pundits are right, a lot of the 30% of remaining votes will be in Biden’s favor.

While it is a big “if” it is not an inconceivable one… There will be plenty of doubts, however, that Biden can now win.

At the end of the day, taking from the rich to give to the poor was just too socialist for a capitalist America.