Bitcoin – How Low Can you Go?

There was some much needed respite from the latest cryptomarket meltdown on Wednesday, with Bitcoin gaining 2.01% to end the day at $4,662.7, though there will be little comfort for the Bitcoin bulls, with Bitcoin still down 17.61% for the current week, coming off the back of last week’s 12.23% loss.

It may seem almost unimaginable to think that bullish chatter remains within the cryptomarket, when considering the 30% loss in Bitcoin alone over the last 10-days, the more bullish clinging onto price targets of more than $10,000 by year end.

While Bitcoin and the broader market were biding their time, hoping for the SEC to approve one or all of the 9 Bitcoin ETF’s that are currently under review, the broader market was hit this week with news of possible price manipulation that had driven Bitcoin and ultimately the broader market into a frenzy late last year.

The SEC’s concerns over price manipulation and evidence through this year of dubious buy and sell orders, the most recent being a large sell-order ahead of the Goldman Sachs announcement of hitting pause on setting up a crypto desk, does beg the question of whether the SEC is going to be prepared to open the flood gates and allow the roll out of ETFs when the market is in its infancy.

As far as the Bitcoin bulls are concerned, the only hope of a sustainable rebound lies in the hands of the SEC, which is ironic when considering the ethos of Bitcoin and its creator’s intention to free people from government control and influence.

How far can Bitcoin slide before a rising number of side lined investors become drawn in will ultimately depend on a number of factors, which will not only include the SEC’s decision on the 9, but also how the G20 progresses on unified rules and regulations and perhaps more significantly near-term, whether the U.S Department of Justice uncovers irrefutable evidence of price manipulation that would most certainly lead to more restrictive controls on the cryptomarket.

Forecasts of Bitcoin falling to $3,000 levels before any recovery seem reasonable enough, with Bitcoin on the back foot at $4,600, but why not $2,000 or even $1,000? It may well ultimately depend on where Bitcoin is sitting at the time of the next bombshell hitting the cryptomarket.

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At the time of writing, it was back in the red for Bitcoin and the broader market, with Bitcoin down 0.93% to $4,619.4, moves through the early morning seeing Bitcoin rise to a morning high $4,723.7 before pulling back to a morning low $4,605.

The moves through the early morning left the day’s major support and resistance levels untested, with the pullback at $4,700 signaling a line in the sand for the Bitcoin bulls, a break out from $4,700 through to $4,800 levels needed to reduce the chances of a near-term slide to sub-$4,000 levels.

Holding onto $4,600 levels through the morning will be key, a pullback to $4,500 levels likely to bring $4,400 level and the day’s first major support level at $4,454.23 into play. We would expect the day’s first major resistance level at $4,829.23 to be left untested on the day, in the event of an afternoon recovery, with the negative bias intact in spite of Wednesday’s gain.