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Bitcoin – Just Turned Bullish, But Can it Hold?

Bitcoin’s rally through the start of the week led to the formation of a near-term bullish trend, with momentum continuing in the early hours as market angst over rules and regs easing following the FSB statements early in the week.
Bob Mason

Bitcoin rallied 8.79% on Tuesday, following Monday’s 5.59% gain, to end the day at $7,320.4, Bitcoin’s first $7,300 day’s end since 10th June’s $7,473.9.

Following a relatively range bound morning that saw Bitcoin recover from a morning intraday low $6,666 back through to $6,700 levels, a mid-afternoon rally saw Bitcoin break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 to an intraday high $7,483.9, with Bitcoin breaking through the major resistance levels on the way.

While the majority of the majors were unable to break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level, the breakout saw Bitcoin Cash break through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,376 on the way to the afternoon high, supporting a bearish trend reversal from 24th June’s swing lo $5,755.

It’s been a long time coming and Bitcoin’s failure to move back through to $7,000 levels and break free from the Bitcoin bears has been largely attributed to regulatory uncertainty, with the G20’s planned unified rules and regulations for the cryptomarket  raising concerns of a material shift in the cryptomarket landscape.

The news wires have been relatively friendly this week however, with the G20’s FSB, led by BoE Governor Carney, having submitted the cryptomarket rules and regs layout to the G20 at the start of the week.

Reports indicate that there was nothing particularly damming in the initial proposal to suggest a material shift in the cryptomarket regulatory landscape, which has continued to evolve through the year, with exchanges having already rolled out KYC and anti-money laundering policies and procedures along with other reporting measures.

Supporting the upward trend was the FSB’s view that “crypto-assets do not pose a material risk to global financial stability”, while acknowledging that there is a “need for vigilant monitoring in light of the speed of market developments”.

While the general view is upbeat, there are few details on how crypto-assets will be classified as an asset class, the classification deciding under which regulatory authority the respective cryptocurrencies and exchanges will fall under and, under what tax code crypto-assets will be classified, though at this current juncture, the regulatory oversight element will likely have a greater bearing than taxation, which was already introduced during the previous tax year, in key jurisdictions at least.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 1.48% to $7,428, with an early moving seeing Bitcoin break through to $7,500 levels with a morning high $7,561.9 before pulling back to $7,400 levels, the morning’s move leaving the first major resistance level untested early on, with the morning’s downside a start of the day $7,319.6 steering well clear of the first major support level at $6,829.63.

Of greater significance through the early hours has been a hold above the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,076, leaving the bearish trend reversal intact following Tuesday’s break through to $7,000 levels.

For the day ahead, a move back through to $7,500 levels would support a run at $7,600 levels though the day’s first major resistance level at $7,647.53 may be left untested, with Bitcoin likely to face plenty of resistance at $7,600 levels on the day, a consolidation at $7,400 levels supporting a move through to $7,600 levels in the week to bring $8,000 levels into play for the first time since 23rd May’s $8,020.

Failure to move back through to $7,500 levels could test investor appetite later in the day, with a pullback through the morning low $7,319.6 bringing sub-$7,200 levels into play, while we would expect sub-$7,000 support levels to left untested through the day, barring materially negative news hitting the wires that could derail the shift in sentiment across the market.

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