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Bob Mason
Brexit shocker

The Head Scratcher

Back in 2016, Britain voted to leave the EU. Few could have imagined that talks would still be ongoing more than 4-years later.

Not too dissimilar to the U.S Presidential Election of 2016 and even 2020, voters were less than open about their choices.

Violence and more left the electorate delivering their votes in greater secrecy than just the ballot box.

Fast forward 4 and a half years and the EU is still demanding to have all its cake and to eat it.

Well, that just doesn’t work and tantrums by the likes of Macron really don’t help.

In fact, the past four and a half years have highlighted more of the EU’s flaws than at any other time during the EU project.

Nationalism has left talks on the brink of collapse, which would leave Britain without a deal.

For the French President, it would be the end of his political career. French fishermen would lose all access to UK fisheries. International maritime law does not treat piracy with kindness. We could see some quite dire scenes across La Manche and the North Sea.

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President Macron

Just earlier today, France has threatened to veto any Brexit deal. Any deal requires all member states to support a final deal.

With France more than likely to lose out on its demands to retain access to UK fisheries, it may be time to rip off the plaster.

This perhaps should have been done in the summer. Other EU member states would have had time to bring the French President in line.

Sadly for many member states, there is no option to oust a head of state or to veto a member. This leaves the EU at the mercy of the cavaliers and the numbers are rising across the region.

Since Macron’s election victory, the fear has always been that the French President has had an eye on a bigger prize.

Chancellor Merkel is on her way out and she will undoubtedly leave a void. When considering Merkel’s more pragmatic stance on Brexit, however, Macron doesn’t seem to fit the bill.

From an economic perspective, fishing contribution to GDP is negligible on both sides of La Manche. It is, in fact, so negligible that it is a head-scratcher for many…

For the UK, this is a sovereignty issue. For Macron, there is more at hand and it can only be a political one.

There could be a simple solution to all of this, however.

With Britain leaving the EU, perhaps requiring visas to enter UK waters would solve the problem.

Trump would probably have gone further and built a wall.

Deal or No Deal?

Looking at the appetite for the Pound this week, there is certainly a belief that a deal will be reached.

Some caution is needed, however, when considering the fact that a single member state can bring the whole thing crashing down.

No member state should have such powers to dictate the future path of the EU. Yet, the “all for one and one for all” philosophy exists and it is not a democratic one.

A rethink in Brussels perhaps of how to resolve the flaws rather than simply expecting everyone to do things the EU way…

So, deal or no deal? It wouldn’t be the greatest shock if Britain jumped ship and returned to the table next year.

Macron would be out by then and the EU may be able to take a more balanced view. Both sides would also get a taste of how things are without an agreement.

It would probably be wishful thinking, however. It’s must be now or never. Too many British politicians have fallen on their swords and many would follow if the narrative doesn’t change.

The Pound

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.68% to $1.34504. The upside this week comes from the expectation of a deal. Surely it is not possible for Macron to bring the house down…

Whatever happens, the two sides have until the EU Summit next week to wrap things up.

We’ve been here before and we could be here again but that would need an extension. It’s hard to fathom pushing for an extension, however. There have been many…

If four years is not enough then how long is enough?

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