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Bob Mason
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Late last year, the global equity markets found further upside, supported by the rollout of multiple vaccinations.

Unprecedented progress by global pharmas towards COVID-19 vaccines has given governments a choice of 5 vaccines to date.

A 6th vaccine is expected shortly, with Johnson & Johnson expected to be the next pharma to deliver a vaccine.

While the availability of multiple vaccines is certainly a positive, availability of vaccines and vaccination rates remain key to bringing an end to the COVID-19 pandemic.

This week, the U.S government published the best and worst vaccination rates across U.S hospitals.

When considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S economy and beyond, low vaccination rates should be of some concern.

While the U.S government has enforced containment measures, there has been no enforcement on vaccinations.

To make matters worse, limited supply of COVID-19 vaccines have added to a slow rate of inoculation across the country.

According to the U.S government, the number of vaccines administered have fallen well short of the 20 million that the Trump administration had projected before the end of 2020.

Supply and demand have both contributed to the lower rate of vaccinations across the country.

All of this ultimately means that the vaccination of phase 1 groups a, b and c will take far longer than initially predicted.

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The Latest COVID-19 Numbers

At the time of writing, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases stood at 86,834.916, with the total number of related deaths rising to 1,875,520.

In the U.S, the total number of cases now stands at 21,578,606, with 356,620 related deaths.

The total number of cases in the U.S is double that of India’s 10,375,478, which is the 2nd most affected nation.

Across the 4 most adversely affected EU member states, the total number of cases stood at 8,658,967, with 230,551 related deaths.

The Outlook

An introduction of AstraZeneca’s vaccine to the U.S and a successful end to Johnson & Johnson’s clinical trials would ease supply issues.

This won’t address issues that governments face in terms of demand, however.

For those that don’t fall within priority groups, the bigger question is whether the slow rollout will further delay mass vaccinations.

With many nations now going through the winter months, vaccinations would need to be completed before next winter.

This gives governments as little as 9-months before seasonal changes kick and raise the prospects of another pickup in new cases.

From a market perspective, bringing an end to the COVID-19 pandemic before the summer would support a strong economic recovery.

A post-summer end, however, could result in a slower pace of recovery or even bring into doubt a recovery.

Looking at the U.S, U.S labor market conditions remain woeful. Failure to take control of Operation Warp Speed would weigh heavily on consumption.

At some point, therefore, we could see a greater influence of vaccination rates and supply on the global financial markets.

Daily vaccination rates and new daily COVID-19 cases will need to be monitored near-term. At a minimum, we will need to see an improving trend between daily vaccinations and new daily cases

No Enforcement at Federal Level

Across the U.S, more than 200,000 new COVID-19 cases are being reported each day. At the current rate of spread, the number of COVID-19 vaccines administered fall short of the number of new daily cases.

Less than 10% of the U.S population have caught the COVID-19 virus to date. The number of new cases would, therefore, likely continue to spike.

Such an eventuality would have a far more material impact on the U.S economy and labor market conditions.

It is, therefore, in the best interest of the U.S government to enforce vaccinations. Particularly in more adversely affected U.S states.

Until now, there has yet to be any talk of enforcement at federal or even state level…

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