Economic Data and Brexit Keep the GBP and USD in Focus

It’s another busy day ahead for the majors, with Brexit and economic data out of the UK and the U.S the key drivers.
Bob Mason
Global financial markets

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.

The Aussie Dollar was in action in the early part of the day, with September employment and business confidence figures providing direction.

For the Aussie Dollar

According to the ABS,

  • Employment increased by 14,700 persons in September, following a 34.7k rise in August. Economists had forecasted a 15.3k.
  • There was a net increase of 26.2k persons in full-time employment and a decrease of 11.4k persons in part-time employment.
  • Year-on-year, full-time employment increased by 191,700 persons, while part-time employment increased by 119,900 persons.
  • The unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 5.2%, which was better than a forecast of 5.3%.
  • Seasonally adjusted, the employment to population ratio held steady at 62.7%.

While the employment figures were a boost for the Aussie Dollar, business confidence deteriorated in the 3rd quarter.

According to the latest NAB Report,

  • Business confidence fell by 7 points to -2, in the 3rd quarter, reversing an increase in the 2nd
  • Confidence declined across all sectors through the quarter.
  • While business confidence took a hit, the business conditions index rose by 1 point to +1 in the 3rd

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67582 to a $0.67814 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.51% to $0.6793.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, The Japanese Yen was down by 0.02% to ¥108.78 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.06% to $0.6296.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of Brexit chatter throughout the day. Progress on Brexit and rising hopes of a deal would be considered EUR positive.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.05% to $1.1078.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the data front. September retail sales figures are due out of the UK later today. The month-on-month retail sales figure will have the greatest impact on the day.

While we can expect the sales figures to influence, Brexit will continue to have the greatest impact on the Pound.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.05% to $1.2825.

Across the Pond

It’s also a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. In the early part of the U.S session, September building permit and housing start figures are due out, alongside October’s Philly FED manufacturing numbers.

Later in the session, September industrial production figures are also due out.

Of less influence on the day will be the weekly initial jobless claims figures.

On the geopolitical front, Brexit and any chatter on trade will also need to be monitored over the course of the day.

The Dollar Spot Index was down 0.01% to 97.989 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar, with August manufacturing sales figures due out later today. We can expect the Loonie to react to today’s figures, with further support likely to kick in should sales figures impress.

The Loonie was down by 0.01% at C$1.3203, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

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