Forex Daily Recap – US Consumer Index Surprised Market Reporting 134.1 v/s 130 Forecasts

USD Index continues moving upwards, breaching the 38.2% Fibo levels. EU slammed Italy with a $3-4 Billion fine over violating EU Fiscal Rules. GBP/USD touch weekly bottom amid growing Greenback.
Nikhil Khandelwal
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US Dollar Index

The Greenback continues to stay underway recovery since the big plunge on May 23. The USD Index made the day’s opening near 97.72 levels and was facing north. Mixed European Events made the Index keep fluctuating in the Asian trading session. The most notable one was the Eurozone May Business Climate that reported 0.10 points lower than the estimates. The US Dollar Index had marked the day’s low near 97.70 levels. Laterwards, the Greenback recovered the earlier losses on the backdrop of positive USD data.

US Dollar Index 60 Min 28 May 2019

The March YoY S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices came out 3.7% lower than the February 3.9% figures. The unexpected event for the day was the US Consumer Confidence. The Consensus had estimated 130 points to report this time. Somehow, the May Index recorded 134.1 points. The US April Retail Sales had reported weaker figures. However, it seems like the consumers still expect the economy to show good growth in the near period. The USD Index had touched the day’s high near 97.96 levels simultaneously marking weekly top levels.


Fiber showcased an overall poor performance on Tuesday’s trading session. The pair had slight upliftments in the early hours as the Switzerland Q1 GDP reported above-the-consensus estimates. The Q1 YoY Gross Domestic Product came out 0.7% higher than the market expectation of around 1.0%. However, the next event displayed negative report eating away the morning gains. The German June Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey recorded 2.97% below the forecasts figures. Following such weaker reports, the EUR/USD pair dropped from day’s high of 1.1199 levels reaching near 1.1182 levels. In the later hours, the pair showcased formation of a double bottom pattern amid Italian budget concerns. Responding to the country’s threat to violate the EU Fiscal Rules, the EU slammed Italy with a $3-4bn fine. Hence, the Italian budget continued to stay under due pressure disturbing the Fiber. At around 16:05 GMT, the pair was trading near 1.1171 levels quoting the day’s lowest level. The plunge in the pair triggered over robust USD data. The US May Consumer Confidence Index and March S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices further controlled the pair’s movements.


Today, the Loonie discontinued its consolidation mode, which was sustained near 1.3440 levels and traveled upwards. During the initial hours of the day, the pair remained restrained within the range of 1.3430/50 levels. Further, the USD/CAD pair marked the fresh daily high near 1.3475 levels. However, this notable improvement was short-lived after the release of the USD-specific events. The pair was pushed down to 10 pips after the release of the March YoY S&P Case-Shiller HPI. This HPI data stood bearish and recorded low numbers.

USDCAD 60 Min 28 May 2019

Laterwards, the Loonie bounced to 1.3470 levels following the strengthening USD Index. The Greenback underpinned against its rival currencies amid global risk sentiment, which promoted the investors to buy safe-haven pair. Also, the Oil prices recorded mix performance today, helping the Loonie to retain its position above 1.3435 levels. Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence report came out 134.1 points than the estimated 130 points. These bullish figures helped the Loonie to maintain its day’s achievements.


Cable recorded weekly low levels near 1.2654 levels today despite the absence of GBP-specific events. The primary reason behind the deepening plunge in the depressed pair was Britain’s political uncertainty and no-deal Brexit fear. A piece of news caught the headline about almost ten lawmakers filing their nominations to replace Theresa May. Over to this news, the Investors remained convinced about the new PM, who will take the stance for Pro-Brexit later. Adding to the pair’s downtrend, the Greenback appeared healthy amid optimistic Consumer Confidence Index. Furthermore, the US-China Trade tensions added in further significant improvement in the GBP/USD pair. Therefore, today’s weak market sentiments benefitted the safe-haven against its British counterpart.

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