Nonfarm Payroll and Wage Growth Puts the Dollar in Focus

It’s nonfarm payrolls. Impressive figures today, following a jump in service sector activity could question whether the FED will deliver…
Bob Mason

Earlier in the Day:

It was another relatively quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning. Economic data included July household spending figures.

Outside of the numbers, sentiment towards Brexit, the U.S – China trade war and market reaction to Thursday’s U.S stats were also of influence.

For the Japanese Yen

Household spending slid by 0.9% in July, month-on-month, which was better than a forecasted 1.3% fall. In June, spending had declined by 2.8%. Year-on-year, household spending rose by 0.8%, falling short of a forecasted 0.9% rise. Spending had risen by 2.7%, year-on-year, in June.

According to the Statistic Bureau,

  • Year-on-year, spending on medical care and housing jumped by 8.55 and 6.3% respectively.
  • There were also increases in spending on education (+3.8%), transportation & communication (+2%), and culture and recreation (+2%).
  • Weighing, however, were falls in spending on furniture & household utensils (-7.5%), clothing & footwear (-3.4%), fuel, light & water charges (-3.4%), and food (-0.5%).

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥107.022 to ¥107.054 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.10% to ¥107.05 against the U.S Dollar

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.06% to $0.6378, while the Aussie Dollar was flat at $0.6815.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s another relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. German industrial production figures for July will provide the EUR with direction ahead of the European open.

Later in the morning, 3rd estimate GDP numbers for the Eurozone are due out. Barring deviation from 2nd estimate figures, the markets will likely brush aside the GDP figures.

Outside of the numbers, an easing in geopolitical risk continued to provide support for the EUR in the early part of the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by just 0.01% to $1.1034.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front, with economic data due out of the UK limited to house price figure for August.

With the market focus being on UK politics and Brexit, we expect the stats to have a muted impact on the Pound.

From Parliament, legislation to prevent a no-deal Brexit is due to be approved today. Next up, we could see a motion for a snap general election, which the Labour Party may once again fail to support.

While a no-deal Brexit Bill may come into effect, there’s still a number of possible scenarios that could end with Britain out of the EU by Halloween.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.04% to $1.2329.

Across the Pond

It’s another particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. August labor market figures are due out later today. Wage growth and nonfarm payroll figures will have the greatest influence on the Dollar.

The markets will also need to look out for any revisions to July figures. Expectations are for the FED to deliver a rate cut in less than 2-weeks. The hawks may need convincing, however. Thursday’s stats revealed that the economy is not in the doldrums just yet.

Outside of the numbers, any chatter on trade requires monitoring along with Trump’s Twitter account…

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.01% to 98.421.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. August employment change figures and Canada’s unemployment rate are due out along with the August Ivey PMI.

While the employment change and Ivey PMI figures are the key drivers, the unemployment rate will need to hold steady to provide support to the Loonie.

Outside of the numbers, expect any trade war chatter to also influence on the day.

The Loonie was up by 0.01% at C$1.3229, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

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