Nonfarm Payrolls – It May Take More Than 1 Bad Reading to Force a Rate Cut

U.S nonfarm payrolls and wage growth will be the main event of the day. Outside of the stats, will be there any trade chatter to rile the markets?
Bob Mason
Non-farm employment change, payrolls or NFP.

Earlier in the Day:

The economic calendar was on the quieter side through the Asian session this morning. Japan’s April household spending figures provided direction in the early part of the session.

Later on in the morning, Australia’s home loan figures failed to influence as the markets looked ahead to the U.S nonfarm and wage growth figures due out later in the day.

For the Japanese Yen,

Household spending slid by 1.4% in April, month-on-month, which was far worse than a forecasted 0.3% decline. Spending had increased by 0.1% in March. Year-on-year, household spending rose by 1.3%, falling short of a forecasted 2.6% and March 2.1% increase.

According to the Statistic Bureau,

  • Spending on transportation & communication (+12.1%), culture & recreation (+5.7%), food (+1.9%) and medical care (+1.9%) supported spending.
  • Dragging on spending, however, were falls in spending on housing (-10.5%), furniture & household utensils (-6.6%), clothing & footwear (-4.1%) and fuel, light & water charges (-3.2%).

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥108.444 to ¥108.468 against the U.S Dollar upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.06% to ¥108.47 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar,

According to the ABS, homes loans fell by 1.2% in April, month-on-month, which was worse than a forecasted 0.2% decline. In March home loans had fallen by 2.5%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.69743 to $0.69759 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was flat at $0.6977, with the markets ignoring the home loan figures early on.


At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.06% to $0.6616.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead for the EUR.

German industrial production and trade data are due out later this morning, ahead of French industrial production and trade data.

While we expect the French numbers to influence, the market focus will be on Germany’s numbers. Following an upward revision to March factory orders, industrial production figures could come in better than a forecasted 0.4% fall in April.

Outside of the numbers, any trade chatter will also influence on the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.06% to $1.1269.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with May house price figures likely to have a muted effect on the Pound.

On the political front, it’s Theresa May’s last day as the leader of the Conservative Party. It remains to be seen whether there will be any negative chatter to weigh on the Pound.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.01% to $1.2695, which has been resilient in spite of the political uncertainty ahead.

Across the Pond

It’s a big day for the Greenback.

U.S nonfarm payrolls and wage growth will be the key drivers on the day. Following particularly disappointing ADP numbers released earlier in the week, pressure on the FED would mount of similar numbers are released later today.

Steady wage growth and 180K plus nonfarm payroll figures would ease immediate concerns over labor market conditions.

Outside of the stats, we can expect more chatter on trade throughout the day. Updates from Mexico – U.S trade talks will also have an impact on market risk sentiment. The U.S was due to impose tariffs on Monday…

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was flat at 97.042.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively busy day ahead.

May employment figures are due out of Canada. While the markets will focus on the employment change figures, the unemployment rate will need to hold steady to provide support.

Outside of the stats, progress on U.S – Mexico trade talks and the direction of crude oil prices will also influence on the day.

The Loonie was up by 0.07% to C$1.3353, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

Don't miss a thing!

Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Latest Articles

See All

Expand Your Knowledge

See All

Top Promotions

Top Brokers

The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.
This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.