The Dollar Fights Back as Mexico Avoids Tariffs

It’s all about the U.S Dollar early on as the markets respond further to the U.S – Mexico agreement. Another trade war averted…
Bob Mason
Arms trade business concept.

Earlier in the Day:

The economic calendar was on the heavier side this morning. Key stats included Japan’s finalized 1st quarter GDP numbers and China trade data for May.

The Australia market was closed on the day.

For the Japanese Yen,

The economy grew by 2.2% in the 1st quarter, according to finalized figures, which was better than a forecasted and prelim 2.1%. In the 4th quarter, the economy grew by 1.9% year-on-year. Quarter-on-quarter, the economy had grown by 0.6%, which also came in ahead of prelim and forecast figures. In the 4th quarter, the economy had grown by 0.5%. Japan’s cabinet office released the figures.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥108.432 to ¥108.456 against the U.S Dollar upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.42% to ¥108.64 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China,

Exports rose by 1.1%, year-on-year, in May, coming in well ahead of a forecasted 3.8% fall. In April, exports had fallen by 2.7%. While exports were on the rise, imports slid by 8.5%, which was far worse than a forecasted 3.8% decline. In April, imports had risen by 4%. As a result of the slide in imports, the Dollar trade surplus widened from $13.84bn to $41.65bn. Economists had forecasted a widening to $20.5bn.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.69840 to $0.69834 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.44% to $0.6970, with a positive impact of a rise in exports offset by concerns over domestic demand and future output. A jump in support for the Greenback weighed early on.

Elsewhere,

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.51% to $0.6631.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a quiet day ahead for the EUR, with Germany on holiday.

The lack of stats and lighter volumes will leave the EUR in the hands of market sentiment towards the U.S and Eurozone economies.

Later in the day, any updates from either the U.S or China on trade will also have an impact.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.21% to $1.1309, the EUR giving up some of last week’s gains early on. Market reaction to the U.S – Mexico agreement that avoids the rollout of tariffs later today supported the Greenback early on.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. GDP numbers, industrial and manufacturing production, and trade data are due out later this morning.

The market focus will be on the manufacturing production and GDP figures.

With the BoE looking to raise rates at a more aggressive pace later in the year to curb inflation, positive numbers would support the current outlook.

Outside of the numbers, however, political chatter from Parliament will also have an influence on the day. There’s been plenty of chatter in recent days, with threats coming from the likes of Macron, who continues to lay his claim to be the voice of the EU as Merkel’s power diminishes.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.21% to $1.2710, Dollar strength weighing early on.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic data front.

The U.S JOLTs job openings figures for April are due out later today. Following the dire nonfarm payroll figures from Friday, we can expect the Greenback to be responsive to today’s numbers.

Any updates from the U.S or China will also influence on the day.

Outside of the stats, early support came from the Mexico – U.S agreement that averted the rollout of tariffs later today

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.24% to 96.779.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead.

May housing starts and April building permits figures are due out later today. We can expect the stats to have a limited impact on the Loonie.

Crude oil prices and sentiment towards trade will likely provide direction on the day.

The Loonie was down by 0.06% to C$1.3275, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

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