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Bob Mason
General Elections 2019

On Monday, news of the Brexit Party standing down from competing against Tory held seats supported the Pound.

There was no immediate evidence of whether there would be an impact on the Tory Party lead in the opinion polls.

The Electoral Calculus, which estimates the number of seats each party would win, however, did show an almost immediate impact.

So, with the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stepping back, in spite of Boris Johnson’s unwillingness to join forces, the Tories appear to be an unstoppable force.

The UK Opinion Polls

The latest YouGov opinion polls show that the Tories have stretched their lead since Monday’s announcement.

According to the latest poll, if you take the poll that is taken based on parties likely to stand in the voter constituency, the Tories have 42% of the vote. The share of the vote rose from 39% as of 8th November.

While the Conservative Party lead stretched to 14%, the Labour Party also benefited from the Brexit Party decision to not compete.

In the latest (11-12th November) poll, the Labour Party sits with 28% of the vote, rising from 26% as of 9th November.

Interestingly, the Liberal Democrats saw their share of the vote fall from 17% to 15%, while the Brexit party held steady at 4%.

As the Lib Dems struggle to find support in the opinion polls, Farage’s decision to not compete had no impact on their share of the vote.

With the YouGov opinion polls giving the Tories an even more comfortable lead, the Electoral Calculus, which estimates the number of seats each party would win, was also aligned.

At the time of writing, the Electoral Calculus projected the Tories to win 381 seats, giving a 112 seat majority.

Last week, the projections had the Tories set to win 370 seats, with a 90 seat majority.

That’s quite a jump from the 2017 General Election, where Theresa May won just 318 seats.

For the Labour Party, it’s grim reading if the projections are anything to go by. Electoral Calculus projects the opposition party to win just 186 seats, unchanged from last Friday. In the 2017 General Election, Labour had won 262 seats.

Things were not much better for the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems had perhaps hoped for a jump in support following the local elections.

In the local elections this summer, the Tories lost 44 councils and Labour 6. In contrast, the Lib Dems won 10 councils and a whopping 704 council seats. That was in stark contrast to the Conservatives, who lost 1,330 seats. The Labour Party lost a more modest 84 seats.

The results had raised hopes of a further narrowing of the divide between the three Parties.

The latest polls and projections ultimately suggest that not only is the electorate satisfied with Britain leaving the EU in an orderly manner but also that Boris Johnson is the man to lead the country.


Hung Parliament

For the Lib Dems and the Opposition Party, the opinion polls and projections have been quite one-sided. There had been some hope, however, of a hung Parliament. Such an event would have given the Labor Party a high probability of leading a coalition government.

The latest odds, polls, and projections, however, suggest that the probability of a hung parliament is ever decreasing.

According to the latest bookmaker odds, a Conservative Party majority now sits with odds of 1-2. Even more compelling was the Tories sitting as short as 1-20 on which party would win the most seats.

The Pound

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by just 0.02% to $1.28418. For the current week, however, the Pound is up by 0.53%.

Not even particularly disappointing economic data through the week has been able to shake off the Sterling bulls this week.

The first week of campaigning is coming to an end, however.

As the parties progress with their campaigns, voters will have greater clarity on Party mandates. Therefore, as the weeks progress, we can expect volatility to pick up.

Expect the odds, opinion polls and the projections to continue to be the key driver.

It would be somewhat surprising for the Tory lead to continue to stretch into the 12th December General Election…

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