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Bob Mason
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On the Macro

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 73 stats in focus in the week ending 5th March. In the week prior, 52 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s a busy week ahead.

Private sector PMI and ADP employment change figures for February are in focus in the 1st half of the week.

For the private sector the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs are due out on Monday and Wednesday.

On Wednesday, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change figures for February will also be in focus.

The market focus will then shift to the weekly jobless claim figures on Thursday ahead of the labor market numbers on Friday.

On Friday, expect the unemployment rate and nonfarm payroll figures to be the key drivers.

Other stats in the week include finalized Markit survey PMI numbers, factory orders, and trade data. We don’t expect the stats to have a material impact on the markets, however.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.57% to 90.879.

For the EUR:

It’s also a busy week ahead on the economic data front.

On Monday and Wednesday, private sector PMI numbers for Italy and Spain are due out.

Finalized numbers for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will also draw interest.

Following impressive prelim manufacturing PMI numbers, however, only a marked downward revision would test EUR support.

On Tuesday, German retail sales and unemployment figures will provide the EUR with direction.

The focus will then shift to retail sales and unemployment figures for the Eurozone on Thursday.

German factory orders for January wrap things up. The numbers will need to be aligned with recent survey-based numbers to support the EUR and the broader market.

From the ECB, the Economic Bulletin on Thursday will also draw plenty of interest. How the ECB’s views inflation and the economic outlook will be key…

The EUR ended the week down by 0.36% to $1.2075.

For the Pound:

It’s another relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Finalized manufacturing and service PMI numbers are due out on Monday and Wednesday.

Expect any revisions to provide the Pound with direction ahead of construction PMI numbers on Thursday.

While we can expect the numbers to influence, progress on the vaccination front remains key near-term.

From the UK government, the government will also release its annual budget on Wednesday. The markets will be looking to see by how much the UK government has loosened the purse strings to support an economic recovery. Government debt has already rocketed to pre-1970 levels as percentage of GDP…

The Pound ended the week down by 0.59% to $1.3933.

For the Loonie:

It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar.

4th quarter and December GDP numbers are due out Tuesday ahead of trade data on Friday.

Other stats in the week include labor productivity and Ivey PMI numbers that will likely have a muted impact on the Loonie.

While key stats will influence, crude oil inventories will also provide direction in the week.

The Loonie ended the week down by 0.98% to C$1.2738 against the U.S Dollar.

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Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a busy week.

In the early part of the week, manufacturing and gross operating profit figures are in focus.

The focus will then shift to 4th quarter GDP numbers on Wednesday. Following the RBA’s monetary policy decision from February, expect plenty of sensitivity to the numbers.

Retail sales and trade data wrap things up on Thursday. January numbers will need to impress to support the Aussie Dollar

On the monetary policy front, the RBA monetary policy decision on Tuesday will set the tone.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 2.07% to $0.7706.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead.

Economic data is limited to building consent figures due out on Wednesday.

The numbers are unlikely to have a material impact, however.

With economic data on the lighter side, expect market risk sentiment to drive the Kiwi in the week.

China’s private sector PMI figures for February will influence in the 1st half of the week.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.90% to $0.7233.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is also a quiet week ahead.

Jobs data and 4th quarter capital spending figures are due out early in the week.

Expect capital spending to draw the greatest interest.

Finalized private sector PMI figures for February are also due out on Monday and Wednesday. Barring any material revision from prelim figures, however, the numbers should have limited impact on the Yen and the broader market.

The Japanese Yen ended the week down by 1.06% to ¥106.57 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a busier week ahead. The market’s preferred Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Monday will set the tone for the week.

On Wednesday, the Caixin Services PMI for February will also influence market risk sentiment.

Ahead of the stats, NBS private sector numbers from the weekend will also influence at the start of the week.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.25% to CNY6.4737 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

U.S Foreign Policy

Iran is back in the spotlight, as the EU and the U.S look to begin talks on the nuclear agreement.

Airstrikes last week were a clear message of intent from the new U.S administration.

How Iran responds will be of particular interest. Further destabilization in the Middle East will be something the markets would prefer to avoid.

While U.S and Iran relations will be front and center, U.S – China news will also need monitoring in the week.

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