The Week Ahead – All the Things You Need to Know

The previous week revealed us that the Federal Reserve will not stay indifferent regarding the latest economic data that recently released from the US. Janet Yellen provided us a glance of  the Fed’s plans for their next meeting. Markets reacted accordingly with the US Dollar remains stable versus major currencies and global shares markets continue to climb, counting the days until higher interest rates.

Traders will be focus on this week economic data as markets direction is still uncertain.

Here are the main economic events of the upcoming week:

Sunday

• Japan Trade Balance will be released at 23:50 GMT. The data is expected to show a deficit of ¥-636.8B, and a decrease from the previous month deficit of ¥641.4B.

Monday

• Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash will be published at 15:00 GMT and expected to fall to -4.9 compare to -4.7 a month earlier.
• US Markets Closed for Presidents Day
• Canada markets closed for Family Day.

Tuesday

• The RBA Meeting Minutes will be released at 00:30 GMT. After a positive employment data on last Thursday and the increasing pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia, markets will be closely watching for any signals that can provide the next direction of the Australian Dollar.
• France, Germany & Eurozone PMI – The French Manufacturing PMI Flash will be published at 8:00 GMT and expected to hold steady at 53.5 compare to 53.6 a month earlier. German Manufacturing PMI Flash will be released at 8:30 GMT and forecasts to fall slightly to 56 compare to 56.4 in the previous month. Later at 9:00 GMT, the same data for the Eurozone is expected to remain unchanged at 55.
• US Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash will be released at 14:45 GMT and expected to rise slightly to 55.2 compare to 55.

Wednesday

• German IFO Business Climate will be published at 9:00 GMT and expected to hold steady at 109.6 compare to 109.8.
• UK Q4 GDP(Second Estimate) will be released at 9:30 GMT. YoY and MoM are expected to remain unchanged at 2.2% and 0.6% respectively. Any surprises can add volatility to the British Pound as latest economic data from the UK signaled the economy strength despite the decision to leave the EU.
• Eurozone January Inflation data will be released at 10:00 GMT. YoY is expected to rise significantly to 1.8% compare to 1.1% a month earlier while Core inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 0.9%. MoM figure is expected to drop to -0.8% from 0.5%.
• Canada Retail Sales for December will be published at 13:30 GMT and expected to rise to 0.5% from 0.2%.
• US Existing Home Sales will be published at 15:00 GMT and expected to rise to 5.53M from 5.49M a month earlier.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes will be published at 19:00 GMT. Fed Chair Janet Yellen raised expectation of a rate hike in the next meeting on March after hawkish testimony last week. Markets are currently pricing rate hike in March at 20%, according to FedWatch tool. The Meeting Minutes can shed light on the Fed next actions and policy outlook.

Thursday

• German GFK Consumer confidence will be released at 7:00 GMT and expected to fall to 10.1 compare to 10.2.
• German Q4 GDP will be published at 7:00 GMT. QoQ is expected to rise to 0.4% compare to 0.1% in the previous quorter while YoY is expected to be revised to 1.2% compare to 1.5%.

Friday

• Canada Inflation Rate will be published at 13:30 GMT. YoY growth excpected to rise to 1.6% compare to 1.5% while MoM is expected to also rise to 0.3% compare to -0.2%.
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be published at 15:00 GMT and expected to fall to 96 compare to 98.5 a month earlier.
• US New Home Sales will be released at 15:00 GMT. The data is expected to show annual rate improvemnt by growing to 570K compare to 536K.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar