The Week Ahead – Economic Data and the RBNZ in Focus
On the Macro
It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar, with 36 stats in focus in the week ending 28th May. In the week prior, 69 stats had been in focus.
For the Dollar:
In a quiet 1st half of the week, consumer confidence figures for May are due out. Following disappointing NFP and retail sales figures, expect plenty of interest in the May figures.
After a quiet Wednesday, the focus will then shift to core durable goods orders, 2nd estimate GDP numbers, and jobless claim figures on Thursday.
At the end of the week, inflation personal spending, and finalized consumer sentiment figures will also influence.
In the week, the Dollar ended the week down by 0.34% to 90.017.
For the EUR:
It’s a quieter week on the economic data front.
From Germany, final 1st quarter GDP numbers are due out along with business and consumer sentiment figures.
Expect plenty of influence from the numbers, with both business investment and consumer spending key to any sustainable economic recovery.
At the end of the week, French consumer spending, inflation, and final 1st quarter GDP numbers are also due out.
Barring any marked revision to the GDP numbers, consumer spending and inflation will likely garner the greatest interest.
The EUR ended the week up by 0.34% to $1.2182.
For the Pound:
It’s a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK.
A lack of stats will leave COVID-19 news and the ongoing easing of lockdown measures to provide direction.
The Pound ended the week up by 0.38% to $1.4150.
For the Loonie:
It’s also a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
There are no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction. With no stats to consider, crude oil inventory numbers and market risk sentiment will influence in the week ahead.
We continue to see any downside for the Loonie to be modest.
The Loonie ended the week up 0.31% to C$1.2066 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of Asia
For the Aussie Dollar:
It’s yet another relatively quiet week ahead.
Key stats include construction work done and new CAPEX figures for the first quarter.
With business investment key to the ongoing economic recovery, expect the CAPEX figures to be key.
The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.50% to $0.7732.
For the Kiwi Dollar:
It’s a busier week ahead.
Early in the week, retail sales figures for the 1st quarter will influence ahead of trade data for April on Wednesday.
The RBNZ monetary policy decision will be the main event on Wednesday, however.
With the markets expecting the RBNZ to stand pat, the rate statement and press conference will be the key drivers. A number of central banks have recently delivered hawkish statements…
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 1.05% to $0.7174.
For the Japanese Yen:
It is a quieter week ahead.
Inflation figures for Tokyo are due out at the end of the week. Expect core inflation figures for May to garner the greatest interest, though we don’t expect too much influence on the Yen.
The Japanese Yen rose by 0.36% to ¥108.96 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of China
It’s a quiet week ahead, with no material stats for the markets to consider.
The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.05% to CNY6.4340 against the U.S Dollar.
There are no major risks to consider in the week ahead.
With the Iranian presidential elections coming up and moderate Rouhani on the way out, however, there could be question marks over the nuclear agreement… Election Day is June, 18th.
As always, the markets will also need to monitor chatter from Capitol Hill and Beijing.