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The Week Ahead – Economic Data, COVID-19, and China in Focus
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It's a busy week ahead. While economic data will draw plenty of attention, rising tensions with China and COVID-19 news from the Eurozone will also be in focus.
In this article:
On the Macro
It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 54 stats in focus in the week ending 2nd April. In the week prior, 56 stats had also been in focus.
For the major markets, it is a shortened week, however, with Commonwealth, European, and U.S markets closed on Friday.
For the Dollar:
It’s another relatively busy week ahead, with some key stats for the markets to consider.
March consumer confidence figures get things going on Tuesday. Following the COVID-19 relief package, the markets will be looking for a continued uptrend in confidence to support consumption.
On Wednesday, ADP nonfarm employment change figures are due out ahead of a busy 2nd half of the week.
On Thursday, ISM Manufacturing PMI and weekly jobless claims are due out. Expect the jobless claims figures to garner plenty of interest.
Wrapping things up at the end of the week will be official labor market figures for March.
Expect nonfarm payrolls and the March unemployment rate to be the main areas of focus.
Away from the economic calendar, FOMC member commentary will also need monitoring. Any deviation from the script could test support for riskier assets.
In the week ending 26th March, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.92% to 92.766.
For the EUR:
It’s another busy week ahead on the economic data front.
Early in the week, French consumer spending and German unemployment figures will be in focus. Expect German unemployment figures to have the greatest impact on Wednesday. France has reintroduced lockdown measures that would mute the impact of any positive historical indicators.
On Thursday, manufacturing PMI figures for Italy and Spain and German retail sales numbers are due out.
Finalized Manufacturing PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are also due out.
Expect German retail sales and Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to have the greatest impact.
While the stats will certainly influence, the EUR could succumb to more downside should lockdown measures widen…
The EUR ended the week down by 0.92% to $1.1794.
For the Pound:
It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.
Finalized 4th quarter GDP numbers are due out on Wednesday. Barring a marked deviation from prelim, however, the numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the Pound.
On Thursday, finalized manufacturing PMI figures for March will also likely have limited influence.
Away from the economic calendar, updates on the government’s plans to ease lockdown measures will be key.
The Pound ended the week down by 0.60% to $1.3789.
For the Loonie:
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
January GDP and February RMPI numbers on Wednesday will be the key drivers in the week.
Building permit figures on Thursday should have a muted impact on the Loonie ahead of Friday’s holiday.
Away from the economic calendar, crude oil inventory numbers will also influence.
The Loonie ended the week down 0.62% to C$1.2577 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of Asia
For the Aussie Dollar:
It’s a busy week.
Private sector credit and building approvals are due out on Wednesday.
Expect private sector credit figures to have the greatest impact.
On Thursday, however, retail sales and trade figures for February will be the key drivers.
The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 1.36% to $0.7637.
For the Kiwi Dollar:
It’s a quiet week ahead.
Building consents for February are due out on Tuesday.
We don’t expect too much influence from the numbers, however.
On Wednesday, business confidence figures for March will influence in a shortened week.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 2.30% to $0.7000.
For the Japanese Yen:
It is a busy week ahead.
On Tuesday, retail sales figures are due out ahead of industrial production figures on Wednesday.
Expect industrial production figures to draw greater interest.
Late in the week, Tankan survey figures for the 1st quarter and finalized manufacturing PMI numbers are due out on Thursday.
The markets will be looking for the Tankan surveys to point to improved manufacturing sector conditions.
The Japanese Yen fell by 0.70% to ¥109.64 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of China
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead.
March NBS private sector PMIs are due out on Wednesday ahead of the all-important Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Thursday.
Thursday’s numbers will have the greatest impact on market risk sentiment late in the week.
The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.49% to CNY6.5411 against the U.S Dollar.
Geo-Politics
U.S Politics
Talks with China have resumed, which will bring chatter from both sides to the forefront from a market perspective.
Economic data from China has continued to impress and global trade terms will need to continue improving to support a more sustained global economic recovery.
Relations between China and the rest of the world will therefore need to materially improve to support this.
The latest spike in tension over Xinjiang cotton will need monitoring.
EU Politics
Tensions between Britain and the EU remain, in spite of the EU’s decision not to ban vaccine exports.
Any decision to block the exports of vaccines could lead to a UK response, however, and could also unravel the UK’s vaccination program.
About the Author
Bob Masonauthor
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.
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