The Week Ahead – Economic Data, COVID-19 Vaccine Updates, and Brexit in FocusIt’s a particularly busy week ahead. Economic data and Brexit will be key areas of focus, with COVID-19 vaccine updates to also provide direction.
On the Macro
It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 88 stats in focus in the week ending 4th December. In the week prior, 50 stats had been in focus.
For the Dollar:
It’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.
In the 1st half of the week, the market’s preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP Nonfarm Employment Change figures are due out.
With plenty of focus on labor market conditions, the ADP figures could overshadow the ISM numbers.
On Thursday, however, both the initial jobless claims and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIs will draw plenty of attention.
At the end of the week, nonfarm payrolls and November’s unemployment rate will provide riskier assets with direction.
Weak numbers could force the FED into action should lawmakers continue to grapple over a stimulus package.
Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 and U.S politics will continue to remain the key drivers, however.
The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.65% to 91.790.
For the EUR:
It’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.
Private sector PMIs for Spain and Italy and finalized PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are due out.
On Tuesday, German unemployment figures will also be in focus alongside the manufacturing numbers.
Mid-week, German retail sales figures are due out ahead of German factory order numbers on Friday.
Other stats in the week include prelim November inflation and Eurozone unemployment and retail sales figures.
These numbers are unlikely to have a muted impact on the EUR, however.
Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news updates will remain a key driver in the week. Expect Brexit to also influence…
The EUR ended the week up by 0.89% to $1.1963.
For the Pound:
It’s another relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
Finalized private sector PMIs are due out on Tuesday and Thursday, with November’s construction PMI on Friday.
Barring any downward revisions, however, the stats are likely to have a muted impact on the Pound.
Sentiment towards Brexit and COVID-19 will remain the key drivers in the week.
The Pound ended the week up by 0.27% to $1.3311.
For the Loonie:
It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar.
In the 1st half of the week, 3rd quarter and October GDP and RMPI numbers are in focus. Expect the GDP numbers to have the greatest impact.
The focus will then shift to trade and employment figures due out on Friday. Expect the employment numbers to have the greatest impact at the end of the week.
From elsewhere, private sector PMIs numbers from China, the Eurozone, and the U.S will also provide direction.
Away from the calendar, COVID-19 vaccine news and stimulus talk from Capitol Hill will also influence.
The Loonie ended the week up by 0.81% to C$1.2989 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of Asia
For the Aussie Dollar:
It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.
AIG manufacturing index figures are due out ahead of 3rd quarter GDP numbers on Wednesday.
The focus will then shift to trade data and retail sales figures due out on Thursday and Friday.
On the monetary policy front, the RBA policy decision on Tuesday will also draw plenty of attention. While the markets are expected rates to be left unchanged, there could be the talk of further support via its bond-buying program.
From elsewhere, private sector PMI numbers from China will also influence.
Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news will continue to provide direction. U.S politics could also play a role should lawmakers make progress towards a stimulus package.
The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 1.16% to $0.7387.
For the Kiwi Dollar:
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
November business confidence figures at the start of the week will draw interest. With the RBNZ assuring continued support disappointing numbers would test Kiwi Dollar support.
Late in the week, building consent figures for October would likely have a muted impact on the Kiwi.
From elsewhere, private sector PMI numbers from China will also provide direction in the week ahead.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 1.41% to $0.7027.
For the Japanese Yen:
It is a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar.
October industrial production and retail sales figures are due out on Monday. Both sets of numbers will be of interest, though the impact on the Yen will likely be limited.
The focus will then shift to finalized manufacturing and services PMIs are due out on Tuesday and Thursday.
Barring marked deviation from prelim figures, however, the markets will likely brush aside the numbers.
From elsewhere, economic data from China will influence.
Away from the economic calendar, any further positive updates on COVID-19 vaccines would likely ease demand for the Yen.
The Japanese Yen ended the week down by 0.22% to ¥104.09 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of China
It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.
Private sector PMI numbers for November are due out in the week. The market’s preferred Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday will likely have the greatest impact.
Economic data from China has continued to impress. Any disappointing numbers would test market risk appetite early in the week.
The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.23% to CNY6.55781 against the U.S Dollar.
Following last week’s Thanksgiving holidays, the markets will look towards Capitol Hill. There will be two areas of focus. Firstly, any government interventions to curb the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and, secondly, stimulus talks.
A failure to make progress on stimulus and reintroduction of lockdown measures would be the worst-case scenario for riskier assets.
For the Pound and the UK economy, Brexit remains a key driver. Talks resumed on the weekend and time is rapidly running out.
With U.S President-Elect Biden also getting involved, the markets are hoping for an imminent deal.