The Week Ahead – Economic Data, Monetary Policy, and the Delta Variant in Focus

On the Macro

It’s busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 64 stats in focus in the week ending 16^th July. In the week prior, 42 stats had also been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Inflation figures will be in focus early in the week. With market concerns over FED monetary policy lingering, expect the numbers to influence.

On Thursday, jobless claims and Philly FED manufacturing numbers will draw attention.

Wrapping things up will be retail sales and consumer sentiment figures on Friday. Expect the retail sales figures to be key.

In the week ending 9^th July, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.10% to 92.130.

For the EUR:

It’s a relatively busy week on the economic data front.

Eurozone industrial production figures on Wednesday and trade data on Friday will be in focus.

Following some disappointing numbers last week, we can expect increased sensitivity to the Eurozone figures.

Through the week, finalized inflation figures for member states and the Eurozone will also draw interest.

The Eurozone’s inflation figures on Friday will be key on the inflation front. Following the ECB’s revision to its inflation target, however, sensitivity should be limited to the upside.

For the week, the EUR rose by 0.09% to $1.1876.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Inflation figures will draw attention on Wednesday ahead of employment figures on Thursday.

While inflation figures will influence, expect Thursday’s stats to be key.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news will need monitoring.

The Pound ended the week up by 0.56% to $1.3901.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Manufacturing sales figures will be in focus on Wednesday ahead of ADP employment change figure on Thursday.

At the end of the week, housing starts and wholesale sales figures are also due out. We don’t expect too much influence from these numbers.

The main event of the week will be the Bank of Canada monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Expect plenty of Loonie sensitivity to the BoC’s outlook on the economy and monetary policy.

The Loonie ended the week down 1.01% to C$1.2447 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s also a relatively quiet week ahead.

Housing sector data in the early part of the week will likely have a muted impact on the Aussie Dollar.

On Wednesday, consumer confidence figures for July and June employment figures on Thursday will be key, however.

Expect the employment numbers to have a greater influence in the week.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.50% to $0.7488.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a busier week ahead.

Early in the week, retail card spending and business confidence figures will be in focus.

Both sets of numbers will provide the Kiwi Dollar with direction.

At the end of the week, business PMI and inflation figures will also influence.

The main event of the week, however, is the RBNZ monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Economic data has continued to deliver Kiwi Dollar support. Whether the RBNZ will deliver a hawkish statement remains to be seen, however.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.57% to $0.6986.

For the Japanese Yen:

Machinery orders on Monday and industrial production figures on Wednesday will be the key stats of the week.

At the end of the week, the BoJ will also deliver its July monetary policy decision and quarterly outlook report.

There’s unlikely to be any surprises from the BoJ, however.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.82% to ¥110.140 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a relatively busy week ahead, with trade data for June due out on Monday.

On Thursday, GDP numbers for the 2^nd quarter will be key, however.

Fixed asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales figures are also due out on Thursday. Much will depend on the GDP figures on the day.

Following last Thursday’s risk aversion over concerns over the resilience of the global economic recovery, China’s GDP numbers will lay the foundations of what to expect from elsewhere…

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.09% to CNY6.4790 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

Russia and China continue to be the main areas of interest for the markets. Following the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, news updates from the Middle East will also need monitoring…