The Week Ahead – Private Sector PMIs, UK Politics and Trade in Focus

While economic data will influence, Beijing and Washington will likely have the greatest impact on risk appetite in the week ahead.
Bob Mason
Pudong New Area skyline in Shanghai, China.

On the Macro

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar, with just 36 stats to monitor over the week.

For the Dollar:

The markets will need to wait until Tuesday for the first set of meaningful stats from the U.S. October building permit and housing start numbers are due out.

With the housing sector considered a barometer of economic sentiment, any disappointing figures will test the Dollar.

There are no stats due out on Wednesday, allowing the focus to shift to November’s Philly FED Manufacturing PMI and October existing home sales due out on Thursday.

As inventory numbers continue to influence existing home sales, the PMI will have the greatest influence on the day.

At the end of the week, prelim private sector PMI numbers for November will also provide direction.

We would expect the services PMI to be the key driver on the day.

Barring dire numbers, the weekly jobless claims on Thursday and finalized consumer sentiment figures on Friday will likely be brushed aside.

Outside of the numbers, geopolitical risk continues to linger and will also provide direction for the Greenback.

On the monetary policy front, the FOMC meeting minutes are due out on Wednesday. Following FED Chair Powell’s testimony last week, however, the minutes should have a muted impact on the Greenback.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.36% at $97.999.

For the EUR:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front, though the markets will need to wait until Friday for key data.

With no material stats due out of the Eurozone on Monday and Tuesday, wholesale inflation figures from Germany unlikely influence on Wednesday.

Any moves in the EUR would likely be short-lived, with prelim November private sector PMIs due out on Friday.

Germany’s manufacturing PMI will continue to have the greatest impact alongside the Eurozone’s composite.

Germany’s 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 3rd quarter will also need considering on Friday. Any deviation from prelim will influence.

From the ECB, the financial stability report is due out on Monday, with the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes due on Thursday.

We can expect the EUR to be sensitive to the report and less so to the minutes.

The EUR/USD ended the week up by 0.30% to $1.1051.

For the Pound:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

November CBI Industrial Trend Order figures are due out on Tuesday ahead of 3rd quarter labor productivity numbers on Wednesday.

While the stats will provide the Pound with direction, UK politics will continue to have the greatest impact on the Pound.

Last week, the Tories were leading in the YouGov opinion polls by a country mile, which provided support to the Pound. Expect more influence from the polls in the week ahead, as voters react to the respective party campaigns.

The GBP/USD ended the week up by 0.96 % to $1.2897.

For the Loonie:

It’s a busier week ahead on the data front.

September manufacturing sales figures due out on Tuesday will be in focus ahead of October inflation numbers on Wednesday.

Following a more cautious BoC, we can expect the Loonie to be particularly sensitive to the inflation figures and retail sales numbers due out on Friday.

Updates from Beijing and Washington on phase 1 of the trade agreement will also provide direction in the week.

The Loonie ended the week up by 0.04% to C$1.3223 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead, with no material stats due out of Australia to provide direction in the week.

From elsewhere, we can expect the private sector PMIs out of the Eurozone and the U.S to influence at the end of the week.

On the monetary policy front, the RBA meeting minutes, due out on Tuesday and the PBoC’s rate-setting on Wednesday will also need considering.

The RBA downwardly revised economic growth forecasts, consumer spending and wage growth in last week’s Statement of Monetary Policy. In spite of this, there has been no talk of further easing.

Expect the Aussie Dollar to slide, if there is any dovish chatter in the minutes.

On the geopolitical risk front, chatter on trade will need monitoring.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.67% to $0.6817.

For the Japanese Yen:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Key stats include October trade data due out on Wednesday and inflation figures due out on Friday.

Following last week’s GDP numbers, weak trade data will add further pressure on the BoJ to make a move next month.

While the stats will influence, geopolitics will continue to provide direction throughout the week.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.42% to ¥108.80 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

Stats are on the quieter side once more in the week ahead.

Economic data is limited to 3rd quarter wholesale inflation figures due out on Tuesday.

Following last week’s RBNZ hold on interest rates, any weak numbers will raise the probability of a rate cut in the New Year.

Outside of the stats, chatter on trade will continue to provide direction in the week. We would expect the Kiwi Dollar to be less sensitive to chatter on trade, however.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 1.20% to $0.6404.

Out of China:

It’s a quiet week on the economic data front. There are no material stats due out of China to provide direction to riskier assets.

On the monetary policy front, the PBoC is scheduled to deliver its interest rate decision on Wednesday that may provide support should the PBoC unexpectedly lower rates after last month’s hold.

Outside of the numbers, updates from Beijing on trade talks with the U.S will also need monitoring…

The Yuan ended the week down by 0.24% to CNY7.0094 against the Greenback.

Geo-Politics

Impeachment: Open door testimony enters the 2nd week, with witnesses continuing to give seemingly damming evidence against the U.S President. Even some Republicans are beginning to cringe as Trump reacts to testimony via Twitter… Could this be the beginning of the end?

The U.S President will need to keep Republicans on his side to remove any risk of an actual impeachment…

Trade Wars: Following Trump’s comments to business leaders at the Economic Club, the markets will be looking for an agreement to be signed. The devil will be in the details, however. If tariffs remain unchanged and the agreement appears to be too once sided, the markets are unlikely to react as favorably. China will need to openly demonstrate a willingness to agree to Trump’s demands to remove doubts that linger in the FX world.

UK Politics: Opinion polls, projections, and the Bookmakers have the Tories as the favorite. We can expect updated polls and projections to have the greatest impact in the week ahead.

The Rest

ECB: The meeting minutes due out on Thursday will garner plenty of attention. Expectations are for the ECB to now stand pat on monetary policy. Any hint of more easing and expect the EUR to take a hit.

FED: The FOMC meeting minutes are due out on Wednesday. With the FED now also expected to stand pat on policy and FED Chair Powell delivering a similar view in testimony last week, the minutes will need to signal a different message to test the Dollar…

RBA: The minutes are due out this week but will unlikely have a material impact. Particularly weak employment numbers out of Australia raises doubts over whether the RBA will be able to stand pat on policy near-term…

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