The Week Ahead – Trump’s Border Wall, Article 50 in Focus

As we enter the last week of 2017 first quarter, traders and investors seek a new direction. Currently, political events and economic projections do not provide any significant clarification for the upcoming months.

June 23, 2016, was the historic date that the United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union. The big event of the upcoming week will occur on Wednesday as the British parliament will send Article 50 notification to start the process of leaving the EU.

Additionally, after the repealing of Obamacare and new healthcare legislation was put on hold, investors will focus on another Donald Trump’s issue that might attract markets attention, the US-Mexico border wall. The proposal is expected to be released on Wednesday and might add volatility in markets if a surprising outcome will be released.

Here are the main economic events of the upcoming week:

Monday

• German IFO Business Climate will be published at 9:00 GMT. The index is expected to remain unchanged at 111.

Tuesday

• US Consumer confidence will be released at 15:00 GMT and expected to fall slightly to 113.8 compared to 114.8.

Wednesday

• Article 50 Activation – The big event is expected to be published at 10:00 GMT, the UK parliament will send article 50 notification to begin the process of leaving the EU. Recently, the UK parliament approved article 50 as what was called ‘hard Brexit’.

• US Pending Home Sales data will be released at 15:00 GMT. MoM expected to rise by 2.0% compared to -2.8% a  month earlier.

Thursday

• Eurozone Business Confidence for March will be published at 10:00 GMT and expected to rise to 0.84 compared to 0.82 in February.
• March German Inflation Rate will be published at 13:00 GMT. YoY is expected to rise 1.8%, a fall from February 2.2%.
• US Q4 GDP will be released at 13:30 GMT. QoQ is expected to grow by 2.0% compared to 3.5% in Q3.

Friday

• Japan Inflation & Unemployment Rate for February will be published at 00:30 GMT. Japan’s inflation is expected to rise by 0.2% compared to 0.4% a month earlier. Japan’s unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.0%.
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for March will be published at 2:00 GMT and expected to hold at 51.6.
• German Unemployment Change will be released at 8:55 GMT. German Unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.9% while unemployment change is expected to drop by 10K compare to a drop of 14K  in February.
• UK Q4 GDP will be released at 9:30 GMT. QoQ growth is expected to rise to 0.7% compared to 0.6%. YoY expected to grow by 2.0% compared to 2.2%.
• Eurozone Inflation rate will be published at 10:00 GMT. Expected to grow by 1.8% compared to 2.0% a month earlier. Core Inflation is expected to rise by 1.0% compared to 0.9%.
• Chicago PMI Index will be published at 14:45 and expected to drop to 56.5 compared to 57.4.
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released at 15:00 GMT and expected to rise to 97.6 compared to 96.3.

Check out our real-time Economic Calendar