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The Week Ahead – U.S Politics, COVID-19, and Brexit Likely to Overshadow Data
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It's a busier week ahead on the economic calendar. Brexit, COVID-19 news, and U.S politics may continue to overshadow the stats, however.
On the Macro
It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 61 stats in focus in the week ending 20th November. In the week prior, 48 stats had also been in focus.
For the Dollar
It’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.
At the start of the week, NY Empire State manufacturing figures for November will be in focus.
Barring dire numbers, however, there should be a limited impact on the Dollar.
On Tuesday, retail sales, industrial production, and business inventory numbers for October will draw attention.
Expect the retail sales figures to have the greatest impact. With labor market conditions quite dire, weakness in consumption will test risk sentiment.
In the 2nd half of the week, Philly FED manufacturing and weekly jobless claims figures will provide direction.
Other stats in the week include housing sector data for October that should have a muted impact on the markets.
Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 and U.S politics will remain the key driver, however. The markets will be looking for some sort of progress on the stimulus front and for Trump to concede.
The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.57% to 92.755.
For the EUR:
It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic data front.
Finalized October inflation figures for Italy and the Eurozone are due out in the 1st half of the week.
With the ECB expected to provide further support next month, the stats should have a limited impact on the EUR.
At the end of the week, wholesale inflation figures from Germany and flash consumer confidence figures for the Eurozone are due out.
Expect the Eurozone’s flash consumer confidence figure to have the greatest impact. It’s likely to be a grim figure as EU member states look to contain the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak in the week. Any further details on what to expect from the ECB next month will influence.
Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news updates and Brexit will remain key drivers in the week.
The EUR/USD ended the week down by 0.34% to $1.1834.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.
On Wednesday, inflation figures for October will draw attention. With the BoE ready to hit the negative rate button, any pickup in deflationary pressures would pressure the Pound.
In the 2nd half of the week, November’s CBI Industrial Trend orders and October retail sales figures are due out.
Expect the retail sales figures to be the key driver in the week. With England going into lockdown mode for November, the numbers may not reveal what lies ahead, however.
That suggests that any upside for the Pound would be limited should the numbers be upbeat. On the monetary policy front, BoE Governor Bailey is scheduled to speak early in the week. Any chatter on monetary policy will influence as Brexit talks continue.
Away from the economic calendar, expect Brexit to be the key driver. Negotiators have just 3-days to come up with a deal ahead of Thursday’s EU Summit. News of a deal would support a breakout from the Pound.
The GBP/USD ended the week up by 0.25% to $1.3189.
For the Loonie:
It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar.
Manufacturing sales and wholesale sales figures for September kick things off.
We don’t expect too much influence from the stats early on in the week.
October inflation figures on Wednesday and September retail sales figures on Friday will influence, however.
Away from the economic calendar, market sentiment towards the economic outlook will remain a key driver. The markets will be looking for progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine. Expect any positive news to support the Loonie.
The Loonie ended the week down by 0.67 % to C$1.3137 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of Asia
For the Aussie Dollar:
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
Employment figures on Thursday and prelim retail sales figures on Friday will provide direction.
On the monetary policy front, the RBA meeting minutes due out on Tuesday will also draw attention. There should be few surprises, however, following the RBA’s statement on monetary policy. RBA Governor Lowe is scheduled to speak on Wednesday, which could provide a more current view.
From elsewhere, expect economic data from China and COVID-19 news updates to also influence.
The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.17% to $0.7270.
For the Kiwi Dollar:
It’s a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
3rd quarter wholesale inflation figures are due out on Wednesday.
While we can expect some sensitivity to the numbers, China’s stats will have a greater impact.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 1.05% to $0.6845.
For the Japanese Yen:
It is a busier week on the economic calendar.
3rd quarter GDP and finalized industrial production numbers are due out on Monday ahead of October trade figures on Wednesday.
At the end of the week, October inflation figures will also be of interest.
Will the stats give the BoJ a reason to stand pat for longer? Much will depend on the containment of the COVID-19 2nd wave.
The Japanese Yen ended the week down by 1.24% to ¥104.63 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of China
It’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.
Key stats include October industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures due out on Monday.
The markets will need to see a continued improvement in economic conditions to support riskier assets.
At the end of the week, the PBoC is also in action. The markets are not expecting any moves on the Loan Prime Rates, however.
The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.09% to CNY6.6065 against the U.S Dollar.
Geo-Politics
UK Politics:
Negotiators have until Wednesday to wrap up an agreement. Failing that, the EU and Britain may decide to walk away from any agreement at the EU Summit on Thursday.
While the Pound has been resilient until now, volatility may well pick up in the days ahead. Expect the news wires to garner more interest than normal. Hopes of a last-minute deal may linger, however, which would provide early support.
U.S Politics
Last week, President-Elect Joe Biden rubbed salt in Trump’s wounds by sealing Arizona and Georgia.
We have yet to see Trump concede. Expect plenty of chatter in the week. With Trump unlikely to be able to reverse the outcome, however, the markets should be fairly resilient to any Tweets.
From Capitol Hill, the markets will be looking for progress towards a pre-2021 stimulus package, however.
With the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic hitting Europe and the U.S, much will depend upon support and containment measures near-term.
About the Author
Bob Masonauthor
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.
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