U.S mortgage rates were down again in the week ending 16th August and it's all thanks to U.S President Trump and the jump in geo-political risk.
Mortgage rates eased back in the week ending 16th August, with mortgage rates on the decline amidst heightened market volatility and rising geo-political risk in recent weeks, according to figures released by Freddie Mac.
Freddie Mac also noted that, in spite of a steadying in mortgage rates through the summer, home sales have not increased, with purchase mortgage applications down year-on-year, the decline being attributed to a combination of rising house prices and limited inventories.
Relatively positive July U.S retail sales figures failed to spur 10-year Treasury yields into action, with elevated geo-political risk continuing to support demand for U.S Treasuries that has kept 10-year yields back at sub-2.9% levels in recent weeks.
Freddie Mac weekly average rates for new mortgages as of 16th August were quoted to be:
Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates for the week ending 11th August were quoted to be:
Weekly figures released by the Mortgage bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell by 2.0%, following on from the previous week’s 3.0% fall, week-on-week.
The Refinance Index remained unchanged in the week ending 11th August, following the previous week’s 5% fall, with the share of refinance mortgages rising from 36.6% to 37.6%, reversing the previous week’s fall.
The MBA also released its 2nd quarter 2018 mortgage delinquency report on Thursday:
The MBA attributed the reduced effects of the hurricanes from a year ago to the fall in delinquency rates, particularly for conventional loans, which were down 2 basis points from a year ago. In contrast, both FHA and VA loans saw rises in delinquency rates over 1-year, while down quarter-on-quarter.
Economic growth and a strong labour market, with unemployment at 18-year lows, continued to support the currently low delinquency rates.
For the week ahead, key stats that will likely influence 10-year Treasury yields and ultimately mortgage rates, include existing home sales figures on Wednesday, which are scheduled for release ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes and new home sales and prelim private sector PMI numbers on Thursday.
Following some mixed data last week, weaker than expected private sector PMI numbers for August would certainly pin back Treasury yields to support the current pause in upward momentum in mortgage rates, though much will ultimately depend on the Oval Office and ongoing flare ups with Turkey, Iran, China and Russia.
Rising demand for U.S Treasuries have pinned back yields, easing upward pressure on mortgage rates in spite of the FED’s intent to proceed with its forecasted rate path for now.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.