EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for November 24, 2021

The Euro fell to its lowest level against the U.S. Dollar since June 2020 on Wednesday after a survey showed German business morale deteriorated in November.

German business sentiment worsened for a fifth month as supply challenges in manufacturing and a spike in coronavirus infections clouded the growth outlook for Europe’s largest economy, according to the Ifo Institute.

At 14:48 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1188, down 0.0061 or -0.54%.

The Euro could weaken further if Germany implements new COVID-19 restrictions, after neighboring Austria reimposed a full lockdown.

Meanwhile, investors are now awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. The Fed is due to release the minutes from its November meeting at 19:00 GMT.

In the latest meeting, the central bank confirmed its plans to start tapering its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program, so investors will be poring over the minutes for further details.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the June 19, 2020 main bottom at 1.1168 will reaffirm the downtrend.

A move through 1.1608 will change the main trend to up. This is highly unlikely but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the EUR/USD is ripe for a closing price reversal bottom.

The nearest resistance is a long-term Fibonacci level at 1.1291 and a minor pivot at 1.1325.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to 1.1250.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1250 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a test of 1.1168.

The main bottom at 1.1168 is a major target. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this level. However, if this level fails as support then look for the start of another steep break with the next major target the May 25, 2020 main bottom at 1.0871.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1250 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move can create enough upside momentum then look for a short-term surge into 1.1291.

A close over 1.1250 will form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.