The Week Ahead: Markets Eye Warsh Testimony, Tech Earnings, Middle East Risks

Market Overview

U.S. equities surged back to record highs last week, completing one of the fastest rebounds on record following an early April drawdown. The S&P 500 rallied sharply to new highs, while the Nasdaq Composite led with a strong tech-driven advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also moved higher, supported by gains in cyclicals and financials.

The rebound reflects a rapid repricing of geopolitical risk. Markets have moved past worst-case outcomes tied to the Iran conflict, with oil prices easing from peak levels and interest rates stabilizing within a defined range. This combination has supported risk appetite and equity valuations.

Corporate earnings remain the primary support. S&P 500 profits are expected to grow roughly 12% year over year in Q1, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Strength in technology and resilience across sectors continue to underpin the rally.

This week brings a heavy earnings slate that will test that narrative. Key reports include 3M (MMM), Boeing (BA), Tesla (TSLA), IBM (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW), Texas Instruments (TXN), Intel (INTC), American Express (AXP), and Procter & Gamble (PG). These names span industrials, technology, financials, and consumer sectors and will provide a broad read on demand and margins.

Geopolitics remain in focus. Iran’s renewed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz reintroduce uncertainty around energy supply, keeping headline risk elevated despite improved sentiment.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Apr 20
Before the Open:
• Bank of Hawaii (BOH), est. $1.34
• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), est. -$0.43
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled.
After the Close:
• Alaska Air (ALK), est. -$1.65
• BOK Financial (BOKF), est. $2.33
• Steel Dynamics (STLD), est. $2.79
• Wintrust Financial (WTFC), est. $2.96
• Zions Bancorp (ZION), est. $1.42

Tuesday, Apr 21
Before the Open:
• 3M (MMM), est. $1.98
Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Core Retail Sales m/m, forecast 1.3% (prior 0.5%)
• 12:30 GMT – Retail Sales m/m, forecast 1.4% (prior 0.6%)
• 14:00 GMT – Fed Chair-Designate Warsh Testifies
After the Close:
• Capital One (COF), est. $4.50
• Chubb (CB), est. $6.60
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), est. $2.12
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR), est. $0.60
• United Airlines (UAL), est. $1.08
• EQT Corp. (EQT), est. $2.14

Wednesday, Apr 22
Before the Open:
• AT&T (T), est. $0.55
• Boeing (BA), est. -$0.65
Economic Releases:
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior -0.9M
After the Close:
• Tesla (TSLA), est. $0.36
• IBM (IBM), est. $1.81
• ServiceNow (NOW), est. $0.97
• Texas Instruments (TXN), est. $1.36

Thursday, Apr 23
Before the Open:
• American Airlines (AAL), est. -$0.47
• American Express (AXP), est. $4.00
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), est. $0.47
• Honeywell (HON), est. $2.32
Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 210K (prior 207K)
• 13:45 GMT – Flash Manufacturing PMI, forecast 52.5 (prior 52.3)
After the Close:
• Intel (INTC), est. $0.01

Friday, Apr 24
Before the Open:
• Procter & Gamble (PG), est. $1.56
• HCA Healthcare (HCA), est. $7.14
Economic Releases:
• 14:00 GMT – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, forecast 48.4 (prior 47.6)
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Central Bank Activity

Tuesday: Christopher Waller (FOMC Member) – 14:30 GMT

Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh testifies Tuesday. Markets will focus on policy direction and independence. Commentary could influence rate expectations and near-term positioning.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 49,447.44 (+3.19%), support at 48,428.79, 47,785.04, 46,019.39 (52-Week SMA) and 45,057.28. Resistance at 50,512.79.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 24,468.48 (+6.84%), support at 21,778.88 (52-Week SMA), 20,690.25, 20,560.17 and 19,334.98. Resistance at 24,519.51.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 7,126.06 (+4.54%), support at 6,522.24 (52-Weekly MA), 6,316.91, 6,212.69 and 5,943.23. Resistance at 7,147.52.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact primary uptrend.

Outlook

Focus centers on earnings and Fed developments. This week’s reports from Tesla, Intel, IBM, and ServiceNow will be critical in confirming whether technology leadership remains intact. Results from Boeing and 3M will provide insight into cyclical demand, while American Express and Procter & Gamble will offer a read on consumer strength.

Retail sales and consumer sentiment will add context around spending trends following recent price pressures and geopolitical disruptions. Warsh’s testimony will also be closely watched for signals on policy direction and leadership continuity.

Geopolitical developments remain a key risk. Any escalation tied to the Strait of Hormuz could impact energy markets and drive near-term volatility, even as earnings strength continues to underpin the broader market.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.