10-Yr U.S. Treasury Notes (TY) Futures Technical Analysis – October 3, 2014 Forecast

Thursday’s bold closing price reversal top suggests December 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes traders may be betting on a bearish jobs number this morning. According to the latest estimates, economists forecast the U.S. economy added an additional 215K new jobs in September. A stronger-than-expected number should be bearish. The size of the break will be determined by how far above the estimate the actual number is.

The closing price reversal top will be confirmed by a breakdown through 125’08.5.  This action will also put the market on the weak side of an uptrending angle at 125’06. The first objective is an uptrending angle at 124’24.

The main range is 123’16 to 125’23. The retracement zone formed by this range at 124’19.5 to 124’11 is the best target.

A jobs number below the estimate should trigger a short-covering rally. Taking out 125’23 will negate the closing price reversal top chart pattern. This could create enough upside momentum to take out the downtrending angle at 125’27. This is the last resistance angle before the main top at 126’12.

The tone of the market will be determined by the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Taking out 125’08.5 will mean the news is bearish.