ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ETH Stumbles

Key Insights:

• It is a bearish week, with the total crypto market cap down by $88.1 billion to $937.6 billion.
• Two events sent the crypto market into the deep red, the US CPI report and the Ethereum Merge.
• Technical indicators have become bearish, with the crypto market needing to navigate this Wednesday’s Fed monetary policy decision.

This week, the total crypto market cap is down by $88.1 billion (8.59%) to $937.6 billion.

On Tuesday, the total crypto market cap tumbled by $78.9 billion in response to the US CPI report. Better-than-expected US inflation numbers fueled speculation of a percentage point rate hike.

On Thursday, another $39.2 billion left the door as investors responded to the Ethereum Merge. Buy the rumor and sell the news became a cautionary tale ahead of the Vasil hard fork.

However, disappointing US economic indicators on Thursday provided the crypto market a much-needed cushion. Weak retail sales and Philly Fed manufacturing numbers eased the bets of a percentage point hike.

Currently, the split between a 75-basis point and percentage point rate hike is 82% to 18% in favor of a 75-basis point hike. Ahead of Thursday’s retail sales and Philly Fed numbers, the split had stood at 75% to 25% in favor of a 75% basis point hike.

While the Ethereum Merge led to a partial crypto decoupling from the NASDAQ, the influence of the Fed should see a closer correlation in the week ahead.

For the current week, Monday through Sunday, ethereum (ETH) and solana (SOL) lead the way down, with losses of 17.7% and 12.2%, respectively. Polkadot (DOT) and cardano (ADA) are down by 9.1% and 5.5%, respectively.

Cardano ADA

For the current week, Monday through Sunday, ADA is down 5.5% to $0.482. A mixed start to the week saw ADA rise to a Monday high of $0.520 before sliding to a Friday low of $0.455.

Despite the reversal, ADA steered clear of the August low of $0.424. A Friday rebound and a bullish Saturday limited the losses ahead of the Vasil hard fork.

As of September 16, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators were ADA price positive:

• Twenty-five exchanges are hard fork ready.
• Twenty-one exchanges are in progress, with Coinbase and Kraken still reporting upgrades in progress.
• Twenty-three have yet to start the upgrade process.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

• Seven exchanges are hard fork ready: AAX, Binance, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, Upbit, and WhiteBit, with four in progress, including ChangellyPro, Coinbase, HitBTC, and XT.com.
• However, one exchange has yet to start the upgrade process: ZB.com.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.50 in the early part of the week will be the key. However, a fall through the August low of $0.425 would give the bears a look at the 2022 low of $0.384.

Vasil hard fork updates should continue to provide direction as investors eye the remaining top 12 exchanges by ADA liquidity to wrap up the upgrade process. The main event is on Thursday. Following the market reaction to the Ethereum Merge, we expect price volatility to pick up ahead of the event.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bullish signal.

ADA sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.482. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA converging on the 100-day EMA to deliver positive price signals.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a run at the August high ($0.595). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($0.482) and the 50-day EMA ($0.481) would likely test support at $0.45. Barring a crypto-meltdown, ADA should steer clear of the August low of $0.425.

Polkadot (DOT)

Monday through Sunday, DOT is down 9.1% to $7.00. Tracking the broader market, DOT rose to a Monday high of $8.05 before sliding to a new September low of $6.71. However, a bullish Saturday supported a return to $7.00.

The bearish week saw DOT cough up the number ten spot to Dogecoin (DOGE), which became the second largest Proof-of-Work coin after the Ethereum Merge. Network news updates took a back seat as investors responded to US inflation numbers and the Ethereum Merge.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44.

However, DOT has to avoid the September low of $6.71 to prevent a continued retrace to the 2022 low of $5.99. While network updates will continue to influence, direction from the broader market will remain the key driver.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.

DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $7.19. The 100-day EMA pulled back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA falling back from the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered negative price signals.

DOT would need to move through the 50-day EMA ($7.19) and the 100-day EMA ($7.30) to support a bullish move. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at the September low of $6.71 and $6.50.

Ethereum (ETH)

Monday through Sunday, ETH is down 17.7% to $1,454. Bearish throughout the week, ETH slid from a Monday high of $1,784 to a Friday and September low of $1,404. Finding modest support on Saturday, ETH avoided a return to sub-$1,400.

Market reaction to the US CPI report and the Merge left ETH deep in the red. ETH tumbled by 8.3% on Tuesday and by 10.2% on Thursday. The Thursday sell-off came despite the seamless transition to a Proof-of-Stake protocol.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,800 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 and a return to $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the September low of $1,404 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $880.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,556. The 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were ETH price negatives.

An ETH move through the 50-day EMA could signal a shift in sentiment and support a return to $1,600. However, ETH would need to break down resistance at the 100-day EMA ($1,591).

Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the September low and sub-$1,400 in play.

Solana (SOL)

Monday through Sunday, SOL is down 12.2% to $33.71. A bullish start to the week saw SOL strike a Tuesday high of $39.00 before sliding to a Friday low of $31.50.

NFT updates delivered SOL support before responding to the US CPI report and the Ethereum Merge. According to Solana News, the most-traded NFT collections over the last 24 hours include, Yoots- Mint Toobs ($426,170), Solana Name Service ($425,491), and Psyker ($273,773).

Hello Moon also shared some Solana-based NFT numbers, which were SOL positive.

However, the positive news failed to limit the impact of the US CPI report and the Merge.

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.

However, a fall through the August low of $29.9150 would leave the current year low of $25.78 in view.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $33.689.

Following the Friday bearish cross, the 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. Both were price negatives.

An SOL breakout from the 100-day EMA ($33.833) would support a move through the 200-day EMA ($34.806) to bring the August high ($48.42) into view. However, failure to break out from the 50-day EMA ($33.689) would bring sub-$30 and the August low ($29.9150) into play.