ADA Price Prediction: A Return to $0.50 Brings $0.55 into Play

Key Insights:

• It was a bullish Sunday, with Cardano (ADA) returning to $0.50 for the first time since August 19.
• News of the Vasil hard fork date continued to drive demand for ADA.
• Technical indicators are bullish as investors responded to the hard fork news, with ADA sitting above the 200-day EMA to bring $0.60 into play.

On Sunday, ADA rose by 4.57%. Following a 5.95% rally on Saturday, ADA ended the week up 17.25% to $0.503.

A mixed morning saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.476 before making a move. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.461, ADA jumped to a day high of $0.51. ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.493 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.506 before falling back through R2.

While the rest of the crypto top ten saw relatively modest gains, the announcement of the Vasil hard fork date continued to provide ADA price support.

Input Output HK Hard Fork Announcement Sends ADA to $0.510

Going into the weekend, Input Output HK announced the Vasil hard fork date of September 22. Investor sentiment was evident throughout the weekend, with ADA hitting $0.50 levels for the first time since August 19.

Before the announcement, investors had shifted the focus to two critical mass indicators, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity).
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

As of September 2, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

• Five exchanges are hard fork ready, unchanged from the previous day: AscendEX (Bitmax), Bitrue, Dex-Trade, MEXC, and NDAX have upgraded. Bitrue and MEXC form the top 12 exchanges by liquidity.
• 30 exchanges are in progress, unchanged from September 2.
• Significantly, Binance is ‘nearly there,’ with Coinbase and Kraken upgrades in progress.

Overnight, PoolTool showed that 81% of Cardano SPO nodes have upgraded to v1.35.3. While upgrade momentum slowed, nodes achieved the 75% threshold earlier in the week.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.80% to $0.507. A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.503 to a high of $0.507.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid a fall through the $0.496 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.517. With the Vasil hard fork date in place, exchange upgrades should continue to provide price support.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.530 and resistance at $0.550. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.564.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.483 into play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA would likely steer clear of sub-$0.48 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.462.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.428.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

ADA sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.481. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a breakout from R1 ($0.517) to bring R2 ($0.531) into view. However, a fall through S1 ($0.483) and the 200-day EMA ($0.482) would give the bears a run at the 100-day EMA ($0.471) and the 50-day EMA ($0.469).