ADA Price Prediction: Bears Eye a Return to sub-$0.50 on US Data

Key Insights:

• ADA faces the prospect of a second daily loss in seven sessions, with the bears in control this morning.
• The morning pullback comes ahead of US nonfarm payroll figures that will define the Fed’s near-term interest rate path trajectory.
• Key technical indicators bullish. ADA sits above the 100-day EMA.

On Thursday, ADA rallied by 6.47%. Partially reversing an 11.99% slide from Wednesday, ADA ended the day at $0.5872. The upside came ahead of today’s US nonfarm payroll figures.

Risk on sentiment stemming from disappointing ADP nonfarm payroll figures for the US delivered a bullish session for the NASDAQ. With no major news to drive the crypto market, the recoupling of the crypto market with the NASDAQ continued on Thursday, providing the upside.

This morning, apprehension ahead of today’s US nonfarm payroll figures weighed on investor appetite for riskier assets. The NASDAQ 100 Mini was under pressure through the morning session, falling by 76.75 points.

Liquidations Reflect Investor Caution

The pace of total liquidations picked up through this morning, reflecting the bearish mood.

According to Coinglass,

• Total ADA liquidations over the past 24-hours stood at $2.55 million.
• Over the last hour, total liquidations were $0.232 million, suggesting deteriorating market conditions.

While the liquidation figures will draw investor interest, sentiment towards the Vasil Hard Fork and reports of Cardano development activity hitting an all-time high remain ADA positive.

Cardano’s total value locked (TVL) numbers are also ADA positive.

According to Defi Llama, Cardano’s TVL was up 2.33% to $135.52 million.

ADA Price Action

At the time of writing, ADA was down 4.14% to $0.5629.

A mixed start to the day saw ADA rise to an early morning high of $0.6048 before sliding to a low of $0.5613.

Technical Indicators

ADA will need to move through the $0.5778 pivot to test the First Major Resistance Level at $0.6069.

ADA would need broader crypto market support to a return to $0.60 levels.

In the event of an extended rally, ADA should test the Second Major Resistance Level at $0.6269.

Failure to move through the $0.5778 pivot would bring the First Major Support Level at $0.5582 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off throughout the day, ADA should avoid sub-$0.50. The Second Major Support Level at $0.5289 should limit the downside.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) send a bullish signal. At the time of writing, ADA sits above the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.5557. This morning, the 50-day EMA converged on the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA; price positive.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a run at $0.60. Price action for the day ahead, however, will hinge on US nonfarm payroll figures due out at 830 am EST.