ADA Price Prediction: Bears Target $0.365 as Sentiment Deteriorates

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, cardano (ADA) fell by 2.56%. Following a 2.49% fall on Tuesday, ADA ended the day at $0.381.
• Market sentiment towards post-Vasil hard fork updates continued weighing on ADA, with chatter from Cardano founder Hoskinson failing to draw in sidelined investors.
• The technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA below the 50-day EMA to leave sub-$0.35 in play.

On Wednesday, ADA fell by 2.56%. Following a 2.49% loss on Tuesday, ADA ended the day at $0.381. Notably, ADA ended the session at sub-$0.40 for a second consecutive session and for the second time since January 2021.

Through a range-bound morning, ADA struck a high of $0.395. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.401, ADA slid to a late low of $0.376. ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.383 to end the day at $0.381.

While Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes supported a return to $0.381, network updates continued testing buyer appetite. Wednesday’s loss marked the seventh in eight sessions.

Network Updates and Today’s US CPI Report to Add Pressure

There were no network updates from Input Output HK to deliver price support. The lack of updates left ADA on the back foot. Disappointing weekly updates have led ADA down from a pre-Vasil hard fork high of $0.595 (August 14) to a post-hard fork low of $0.376 (October 12).

In September, Cardano founder Hoskinson talked about hundreds of projects considering the Cardano network after the mainnet hard fork. However, since the mainnet hard fork, project migration numbers have been disappointing.

As of October 7, 102 projects launched on Cardano, with 1,117 projects building on the Cardano network. Before the hard fork, the number of projects launched on Cardano had stood at 98, with 1,100 projects building on the Cardano network.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.52% to $0.379. A bearish start to the day saw ADA fall from an early morning high of $0.382 to a low of $0.378.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to move through the $0.384 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.392 and the Wednesday high of $0.395. Sentiment from the broader crypto market would need to improve to support a return to $0.390.

Favorable Cardano ecosystem updates would also support a recovery of the early losses. However, today’s US CPI report could prove decisive. In the case of a breakout session, ADA would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.403. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.422.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.373 in play. However, barring another extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.365. The Second Major Support Level at $0.365 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.346.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.411. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.392) and R2 ($0.403) would give the bulls a run at 50-day EMA ($0.411). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.440. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.411) would likely lead to further price pressure.