ADA Price Prediction: Bears to Target $0.290 on IOHK Weekly Update

Key Insights:

• ADA bucked the broader market trend on Friday, rising by 1.94% to end the day at $0.316.
• Another hot US Jobs Report and news of SVB Financial Group shutting its doors failed to spook investors with TVL numbers rising.
• The technical indicators remained bearish, leaving sub-$0.285 in play.

ADA rose by 1.94% on Friday. Partially reversing a 2.52% loss from Thursday, ADA ended the day at $0.316.

A bearish start to the day saw ADA fall to a late morning low of $0.298. ADA briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.301 before striking a final-hour high of $0.319. However, coming within range of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.321, ADA eased back to end the day at $0.316.

Investors Ignore the IOHK Weekly Development Report

Input Output HK (IOHK) released the Weekly Development Report on Friday. The numbers were disappointing, with no new projects launched on the Cardano network for a second consecutive week. Increasing regulatory and lawmaker scrutiny could be affecting project launches.

We expect investors to take more interest in the project numbers over the near term. According to the March 10 report,

• 117 projects launched on the Cardano network, unchanged from March 3.
• Projects building on the Cardano network totaled 1,210, up by one from the previous report.
• Plutus scripts totaled 5,979, of which 815 were Plutus V2 scripts. As of March 3, Plutus scripts stood at 5,953.

Before the Vasil hard fork, the number of projects launched on Cardano had stood at 98, with 1,100 projects building on the Cardano network.

Other stats included 62.6 million transactions (Previous Report: 62.2m), 7.92 million native tokens (PR: 7.87 million), and 70,484 token policies (PR: 70,258).

Cardano Total Value Locked Rises Despite Bearish Sentiment

According to DeFi Llama, total value-locked figures for Cardano have sent bullish signals. This morning, the Overall TVL was down 2.28% to $43.74 billion. However, Cardano saw a 4.07% increase to $108.36 million, delivering ADA price support.

The Day Ahead

Input Output HK (IOHK) updates will continue to draw attention. While ADA bucked the bearish trend on Friday, a lack of network news should leave ADA in the hands of the broader crypto market. The weekly update disappointed for a second consecutive week and questioned the assurances of an influx of projects in Q1.

Binance and FTX news and updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case will remain key drivers for the broader crypto market. However, investors should also monitor US lawmaker chatter and regulatory activity following the collapse of SVB Financial Group (SIVB).

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.95% to $0.319. A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.316 to a high of $0.326. ADA briefly broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.324.

Technical Indicators

ADA has to avoid the $0.311 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.324 and the morning high of $0.326. A return to $0.320 would support a bullish session. However, Cardano network updates and the broader crypto market would need to provide support.

In case of a breakout, ADA would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.332. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.353.

A fall through the pivot ($0.311) would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.303 into play. However, barring another broad-based crypto sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.290. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.290 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.269.

Today, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

ADA sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.329. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.324) and the 50-day EMA ($0.329) would give the bulls a run at R2 (0.332). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.329) would leave the Major Support Levels in play. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.