ADA Return to $0.50 Vasil Hard Fork Dependent as Countdown Begins

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, cardano (ADA) fell by 0.68% to end the day at $0.439. A second session in the red came in response to the Fed’s hawkish rate hike.
• Following the Fed’s heavily anticipated policy move and projections, the focus now shifts to today’s Vasil hard fork.
• The technical indicators are bearish, with ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$0.40.

On Wednesday, ADA slipped by 0.68%. Following a 2.43% loss on Tuesday, ADA ended the day at $0.439.

After a choppy morning session, ADA struck a high of $0.465 before sliding to a post-Fed low of $0.427. ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.452 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.462.

However, the reversal saw ADA fall through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.435. Finding support at the Second Major Resistance Level (S2) at $0.428, ADA bounced back to end the day at $0.439.

Market sentiment towards the Vasil hard fork delivered pre-Fed support. However, a hawkish Fed rate hike and gloomy FOMC projections sent ADA into negative territory.

With the Vasil hard fork due to take place today at 2145 UTC, investors will be looking to move on from the Fed.

The Countdown to the Vasil Hard Fork Begins

On Tuesday, updates on exchanges and DApps upgrading ahead of today’s hard fork were ADA positive. The latest updates suggest no further delays.

As of September 21, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

• Thirty-nine exchanges are hard fork ready, rising by eight from September 20.
• Nine are in progress, with Coinbase and Kraken still reporting upgrades in progress.
• Twenty-one have yet to start the upgrade process.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

• Eleven exchanges are hard fork ready.
• Coinbase has yet to complete the upgrade.

Following the successful upgrade of 75% of SPO nodes to v1.35.3, the crypto market is tracking two critical mass indicators, these being,

• Approximately 25 exchanges must upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity). Currently, IOHK reports exchanges upgrades accounting for 55% of ADA liquidity.
• Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

As of September 21, the status of the top Dapps by TVL was as follows:

The Vasil hard fork is due to take place today at 2145 UTC.

For those looking for a detailed explanation of the Vasil hard fork, Input Output HK shared a Vasil Upgrade guide.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.68% to $0.442. A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.439 to a high of $0.442.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to move through the $0.444 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.460. Input Output HK Vasil hard fork updates will continue to influence as the Vasil hard fork countdown begins.

Following Wednesday’s update, investors will look for exchanges, including Kraken and Coinbase, to complete the upgrade process. While the updates will influence, we expect further market reaction to the Fed’s monetary policy decision and projections.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test resistance at $0.480 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.482. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.520.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.422 in play. Barring another extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.400. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.406 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.368.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.461. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA sliding back from the 100-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through R1 ($0.460) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.461) and the 100-day EMA ($0.469). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.477. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure.