Aster Price Forecast: Descending Triangle Targets $1.20 as $700M Unlock Looms

Binance-backed DEX, Aster (ASTER), has declined by more than 32% in the past week, breaking below a key support area that could trigger another sell-off in October.

Descending Triangle Setup Projects Aster at $1.20

ASTER’s four-hour chart shows a breakdown below the lower trendline of a descending triangle, which is considered a bearish reversal pattern when formed after a strong rally.

This setup typically signals further downside, with the measured target around $1.20, more than 25% below current levels.

The descending triangle formed after ASTER’s parabolic rise above $2.40 in mid-September.

Since then, the token has faced consistent rejection at its upper trendline resistance, holding a relatively flat base near $1.60. Bears finally took control, breaking through that base support late in September.

ASTER may attempt a short-term recovery to retest its broken support as resistance.

The key upside level to watch is near $1.73, the confluence of the triangle’s lower boundary, the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA), and the upper trendline of a parallel falling channel.

A rejection at this level could confirm the breakdown and open the door to deeper losses. On the downside, the parallel channel’s lower boundary aligns closely with the descending triangle’s measured target of $1.20, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Aster Will Unlock $700 Million Tokens By Year’s End

Beyond technicals, ASTER faces a major supply event on Oct. 17, when 183.13 million tokens—worth about $325 million, or 11% of its market cap—are scheduled to unlock, according to DropStab.com.

Unlike many projects, Aster appears better positioned to weather the dilution.

The Binance-backed DEX processes nearly $1 billion in daily trading volume and secures more than $2.26 billion in total value locked (TVL), signaling strong liquidity across its ecosystem.

That level of activity suggests the market may be able to absorb the new supply. Some traders even argue the unlock could act as a springboard for ASTER’s next leg higher, framing it as a “buy the dip” opportunity.

Not everyone agrees. Independent trader Gordon, who claims to have netted $1.40 million shorting ASTER, warns that buyers may hesitate at current levels.

$ASTER can’t stop bleeding, and with $700M of unlocks around the corner they really need buyers to step in here

Is ASTER becoming disASTER? 🧐 pic.twitter.com/MDALftLrI9

— Gordon (@AltcoinGordon) September 30, 2025

He points to the project’s tokenomics, stressing that around $700 million worth of ASTER is set to unlock before year’s end.

“The token may keep bleeding as new supply hits the market,” Gordon said.

To counterbalance such risks, Aster is reportedly considering vesting schedules for airdrop recipients, which could help smooth out supply shocks and reduce sell pressure in the coming month.