ASX 200 Forecast: CPI Risk and Oil Shock Keep Bears in Control

ASX 200 Pressured as CPI Risk Builds

The ASX 200 is losing altitude at the wrong time. With Australia’s March CPI print due tomorrow, traders aren’t waiting around for confirmation. They’re cutting risk first and asking questions later.

That makes sense. The local index has already logged a sixth straight loss, with selling broadening across mining, healthcare, retail and consumer-linked names. Energy is the exception, but that’s not a clean bullish signal. It’s more of a geopolitical hedge. Brent crude continues to trade above the psychologically important US$100 zone as US-Iran talks stall and Strait of Hormuz shipments remain restricted. Inflation risk is the problem. Again.

Good news isn’t helping either. A resilient domestic economy gives the RBA less room to soften its stance. That’s the uncomfortable setup here. With stronger activity, firmer oil, sticky inflation expectations, you get an equity market that doesn’t want to reprice higher rates.

CPI Is the Main Event

Wednesday’s CPI release is the number that matters. The ABS has March CPI scheduled for April 29 at 11:30am AEST, and the market is already leaning defensive ahead of it. Forecasts point to a sharp jump in headline inflation, with IG reporting expectations for headline CPI near 4.8% YoY, while trimmed mean inflation is expected to remain sticky.

That puts the May 5 RBA decision directly in play. The RBA’s cash rate is currently 4.10%, with the next update scheduled for May 5, and the official inflation target remains 2%–3%. A hot CPI print would strengthen the case for another hike, hitting banks, real estate, consumer discretionary names and high-duration growth stocks. Not ideal. Not with the tape already weak.

Renko Shows Seller Control

The attached 15-point brick Renko chart confirms the bearish shift. Price has rolled over from the 8,827.7 lower high and is now pressing into the 8,600–8,700 support zone. The structure is clear: lower highs, lower lows, red bricks, and sellers defending rallies.

The immediate resistance band sits around 8,746–8,760, where the Supertrend now acts as a short-term ceiling. The broader resistance zone remains 8,820–8,900. I’d treat rallies into that region as corrective.

The 500-SMA near 8,600 is the line in the sand. A break below it opens 8,510, then 8,255. Momentum is stretched, with the Z-Score SMA near -1.7, so a short bounce wouldn’t surprise me. But that’s not the same thing as a bottom. Bears still have the ball.

ASX 200 Renko Breakdown Tests 8,600 Support

ASX 200 15-point Renko chart showing bearish red bricks, Supertrend resistance, RSI weakness and price testing the 8,600 support zone

Source: TradingView

ASX 200 Outlook

Current trend direction: Bearish
Bias: Negative
Key support levels: 8,255
Key resistance levels:8,755, 9,230

Medium-term path: I expect the ASX 200 to remain under downside pressure while it trades below 8,760 and the broader 8,820–8,900 resistance zone. A hot CPI print would likely reinforce RBA tightening fears and push the index toward 8,510. If selling accelerates, 8,255 comes back into focus. For the bearish view to weaken, bulls need to reclaim 8,760, then force a daily close above the 21-day EMA. Until then, rallies look like selling opportunities.