ASX 200 Forecast: Mining Resilience Offsets Hormuz Tension and Westpac Sentiment Slump

Crazily enough geopolitics is back in the driver’s seat. Being a market technician for over a decade and I’m still surprised when markets climb these walls of worry. We’ve seen the Strait of Hormuz effectively turn into a permission-based maritime corridor, with the U.S. Navy starting its blockade of Iranian ports today after weekend peace talks in Islamabad failed to produce a deal. Crude oil is flirting with $104. This is a supply-side shock that would normally crush equities. Yet, the ASX 200 is finding a strange kind of comfort in the commodity patch. Miners are leading the charge. BHP and Rio Tinto are acting as a hedge against the very inflation that’s currently terrifying the RBA. I think the market is betting on commodity-led resilience rather than a total growth collapse.

Consumer Confidence Slumps to Post-Pandemic Lows

The domestic data is ugly. There’s no other way to put it. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index for April just printed a huge 12.5% decline, crashing to 80.1 from 91.6 in March. Consumers are breaking. Rising petrol prices at $2.40/litre and the threat of higher interest rates have pushed the family finances vs a year ago sub-index to a deeply pessimistic 66.8. We’re watching a public that’s genuinely scared of the pump and the mortgage.

Westpac Sentiment Chart Showing a 12.5% Drop in Consumer Confidence

Bar chart showing sharp negative change in Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for April 2026. Source: TradingView

Weekly Squeeze Defends the Long-Term Floor

The technical picture is far more optimistic than the headlines. It’s like chalk and cheese. On the weekly timeframe, we’re seeing a positive flip on the short-term Supertrend. Buyers successfully defended the 8,255–8,635 structural zone during the initial Hormuz panic. It held. The index is now pushing away from that floor, leaving bears who bet on a geopolitical crash trapped beneath the current tape. We’re neutral-to-bullish here. A weekly close above 9,000 would be a definitive signal that the escalator higher is still moving.

Weekly ASX 200 chart highlighting a bounce off Supertrend support near 8,635

Weekly candlestick chart of Australia 200 Index showing price holding above the Supertrend support line. Source: TradingView

Daily EMA Reclaim Shifts Momentum

Buyers took control. The daily chart shows a V-shaped recovery that pushed price action back above the 21-period EMA. This EMA now acts as dynamic support. The RSI has flipped back above 60, which suggests there’s plenty of room for further upside. I like the orderly nature of this move. It tells me that institutional money is quietly accumulating the mining sector’s dividends while the retail crowd obsesses over the blockade headlines.

Daily ASX 200 chart showing price action reclaiming the 21-EMA during the April recovery

Daily chart of ASX 200 showing price crossing above the 21-day moving average. Source: TradingView

Renko Bulls Shatter the 500 SMA

Looking at the 11-brick traditional Renko exposes the raw institutional bid. That long-term SMA since the end of March. Now it is a floor. The Supertrend needs to flip back to green, and the Z-Score SMA is recovering. The trend remains positive. Momentum is preparing to push the bricks another leg higher. I wouldn’t fight this tape until we see a series of red bricks close back under the 8,650 level.

11-brick Renko Prepping for Another Leg Higher

Renko chart of ASX 200 with 11-brick size. Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current trend direction: Neutral

Bias: Positive

Key support levels: 8,255, 8,635, 8,890

Key resistance levels: 9,230

Medium Term Path: I expect the ASX 200 to grind higher toward the 9,230 resistance zone. The mining sector is the engine here. As long as iron ore and copper prices remain firm on the back of energy-driven supply constraints, our big miners will provide the necessary points to offset the weakness in rate-sensitive consumer stocks. If we can hold the daily 21-EMA through the rest of the week, the bull case for a re-test of all-time highs is very much alive.