Natural Gas Price Forecast: Support Fails as Bearish Momentum Builds

Breakdown Confirms Shift in Trend Structure

Natural gas continued its descent on Tuesday, reaching a new trend low of $2.56. That move pushed price below a key support zone defined by the higher swing low at $2.62 from August. A drop below that level provides another trend reversal signal for the prior rising trend and opens the door to lower price levels.

In addition to the failure of support at key levels seen over the past few months, an inside month triggered to the downside earlier this month on a move below March’s low of $2.80. Both February and March confirmed bearish signals, as each month closed below key prior support levels, including the long-term uptrend line, reinforcing the broader shift in trend direction.

Support Zone and Wedge Structure in Focus

There is a key support zone highlighted on the chart from $2.30 to $2.21. Each level was either a monthly high or low, strengthening its significance as a potential demand area. Further validating that zone is the lower boundary line of a large falling (bullish) wedge pattern that broke out in October. The top line of the wedge has shown support twice this year, and it may do so again as Tuesday’s low is at that line. It remains to be seen whether support will hold near the line, and price could still fall while remaining above it, keeping the broader structure technically intact.

Early Strength Signals Face Overhead Resistance

Nonetheless, there is the potential to see signs of support following a successful test near that trendline. A rally above Monday’s high of $2.72 would provide the first sign of strength on a daily basis, followed by an interim lower swing high at $2.89. The short downtrend line and 20-day moving average at $2.88, which is declining, further define potential resistance for the short-term downtrend. An initial upside target would be the 20-day moving average, which would need to be reclaimed before there was a chance at higher prices.

Bearish Continuation Risk Remains Dominant

Given the likely close below Monday’s low of $2.62, there remains downward pressure that could lead to a bearish continuation. A decisive decline below Tuesday’s low of $2.56 would provide the next bearish signal, especially if it also breaks natural gas below the trendline support zone, reinforcing downside risk.

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